Heavy rains have relented over coastal Tamil Nadu after the convective activity over southwest Bay of Bengal became subdued.
On Friday, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) had retracted over this stretch of the Bay of Bengal basin, matched only by the significant scaling-up across the peninsula over southeast Arabian Sea.
This warm pool was lying stretched right across from the east African coast and the adjoining Indian Ocean, measuring up to 30 degrees Celsius.
A cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea in the lower levels persisted on Friday, according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update.
A trough from this system lay extended into Marathwada, which was causing the winds to set up confluence over central India.
WIND CONFLUENCE
Westerlies in the upper levels can whip up moisture as they blow in from this part of the Arabian Sea. In combination with the seasonally moisture-laden easterlies, they are capable of dropping some rain over the area of confluence.
Fairly widespread to scattered rain has been reported from Madhya Pradesh during the last 24 hours.
Rainfall has also been reported at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal and southern-interior Karnataka.
Forecasts by the Chennai Met Centre for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at a few places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Karnataka.
International models maintain their outlook for light to scattered showers to return to the south peninsula from Monday.
South-east coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka would continue to be the areas to witness most of the rainy weather during this phase. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) a basin-wide trough of lower pressure would link the Bay of Bengal, equatorial Indian Ocean and a large part of Arabian Sea.
This is the phase that models have sought to identify with the arrival of the next wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in the upper levels that has a major say on weather panning out over ground.
Towards the north, maximum temperatures were below normal over some parts of Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.
Minimum temperatures were above normal by 4 to 8 deg Celsius over many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and east Uttar Pradesh. This was attributed to the presence of moisture in the atmosphere and associated cloudiness.
The lowest minimum temperature of 4.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh for a second day on Friday.
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