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Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Today, 03A as a LOW is seen over central Arabian sea and drifting W-N-W ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dFr3K.jpg
Today, N Bay circulation has shown some consolidation and expected to drift NW into S Bengal, and fizzle out in 36hrs !
A weak low-level circulation seen over S-tip Tamilnadu and this also will move West into SE corner Arabian sea in 24hrs.
A good low-level LWD seen from S-W Karnataka W-ghats to S-tip Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dFskh.jpg
GFS expects a "short lived" low-level circulation over S-central Bay on 16-Oct... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dFt3c.jpg
A depression over W-Pacific "24W" is tracking west and expected to intensify to Typhoon in next 3 days... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dFt89.jpg
If this happens, then the easterlies will get sucked into that 24W on 17,18-Oct.
Even the winds over S,S-E Bay will be towards that system.
This'll delay the easterlies push into Bay and the NE monsoon onset along Tamilnadu coast !
SWM withdrawal has come down to 14 Deg North,in the SE coast ... http://ow.ly/TkpjO
Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
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Today evening into midnight... Due to N Bay circulation.. scattered T showers for S,central Bengal into S,S-E Bihar, Jharkhand.
Due to LWD... T showers expected all along W-ghats from N-W Karnataka to S-tip Tamilnadu... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dFtZW.jpg
Heavy T showers expected to happen over W-ghats Kerala, W-ghats, S,S-central Tamilnadu on today evening !
On noon,evening 14-Oct... more T showers ahead for Bengal, Jharkhand and some into N Odisha.
Some rain also expected for N,N-E Uttarpradesh
From 14-Oct.. T showers are expected to reduce along W-ghats of Kerala except for some HEAVY rain over S-tip Tamilnadu and its Ghats.
Monday, October 12, 2015
Easterly rinse
Whereas in west coast [Mangaluru] westerly were pronounced up to 925 hPa. Obviously the penetrating easterly and withdrawing (South) southwesterly meet in the west interior parts of TamilNadu to give copious rainfall.. Usually when withdrawal of SWM is felt only coastal and immediately adjoining area will get thunder showers. Whereas this time interior TN experienced TS. However this is NOT uncommon also.
As the SUN advances towards tropic of Capricorn heating in southern hemisphere will increase.Anyhow the last SWM wind will be blowing for another 72-96 hours over 10 Degree latitude & below [i.e Kochi-Bodi-Theni-Madurai -Sivaganga-Devakottai-Thondi and / or slightly above and below NH49]. Then easterlies will rinse the entire TN there after
NE Monsoon delayed ! Onset after 23-Oct !
NE Monsoon for Tamilnadu is delayed ! Onset expected after 23-Oct !
The expected 18-Oct easterlies did not materialize !
Latest GFS suggests that easterlies expected only after 22-Oct !
Today, there's a low,mid-level circulation over N-E Bay and its trough seen upto S-central Bay ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDUPm.jpg
Today, Low-level LWD seen all along W-ghats from S-W Karnataka to S-tip Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDV0l.jpg
In 24hrs, a weak low-level circulation expected over S-tip Tamilnadu and LWD to extend from S-W Maharastra Ghats to S-tip Tamilnadu.
The low-level LWD along w-ghats is expected to persist for another 3 days... HEAVY T showers ahead ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVhz.jpg
Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
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Before midnight today...
HEAVY T showers for W-ghats all along from W Maharastra to S-tip Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVED.jpg
Widespread HEAVY T showers ahead for S,S-central and W-ghats Tamilnadu on today and 13-Oct.
Towards early morning of 13-Oct, more rain ahead for S-E, central coast Tamilnadu (like today)... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVMV.jpg
HEAVY T showers warning for W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu and over S Tamilnadu on 12,13-Oct ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVR2.jpg
For #Chennai ... from today almost NO rain expected for next 3 days.
Except for a early morning light rain / drizzle on 13-Oct.
#Bangalore can expect a T shower on today evening and on 13-Oct.
After that its expected to be dry !
The expected 18-Oct easterlies did not materialize !
Latest GFS suggests that easterlies expected only after 22-Oct !
Today, there's a low,mid-level circulation over N-E Bay and its trough seen upto S-central Bay ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDUPm.jpg
Today, Low-level LWD seen all along W-ghats from S-W Karnataka to S-tip Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDV0l.jpg
In 24hrs, a weak low-level circulation expected over S-tip Tamilnadu and LWD to extend from S-W Maharastra Ghats to S-tip Tamilnadu.
The low-level LWD along w-ghats is expected to persist for another 3 days... HEAVY T showers ahead ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVhz.jpg
Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Before midnight today...
HEAVY T showers for W-ghats all along from W Maharastra to S-tip Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVED.jpg
Widespread HEAVY T showers ahead for S,S-central and W-ghats Tamilnadu on today and 13-Oct.
Towards early morning of 13-Oct, more rain ahead for S-E, central coast Tamilnadu (like today)... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVMV.jpg
HEAVY T showers warning for W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu and over S Tamilnadu on 12,13-Oct ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVR2.jpg
For #Chennai ... from today almost NO rain expected for next 3 days.
Except for a early morning light rain / drizzle on 13-Oct.
#Bangalore can expect a T shower on today evening and on 13-Oct.
After that its expected to be dry !
Weak Cyclone "03A" - The End !
Cyclone 03A over Arabian sea is almost at its end.
11am, ADT analysis ..pressure is 1000mb. Just a depression now.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDU41.jpg
JTWC warning at 3:30pm, 11-Oct
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 551 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS ISOLATED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 110529Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS ONLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT. INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND
ASCAT, AND IS BELOW THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA FOR THIS BASIN. TC 03A
HAS STRUGGLED IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS POOR OUTFLOW. THE HWRF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. AS A
RESULT, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
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