Monday, October 12, 2015

Weak Cyclone "03A" - The End !


Cyclone 03A over Arabian sea is almost at its end.
11am, ADT analysis ..pressure is 1000mb. Just a depression now.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDU41.jpg

JTWC warning at 3:30pm, 11-Oct
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 551 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS ISOLATED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 110529Z ASCAT PASS 
REVEALS ONLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT. INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND 
ASCAT, AND IS BELOW THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA FOR THIS BASIN. TC 03A 
HAS STRUGGLED IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS 
WELL AS POOR OUTFLOW. THE HWRF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE 
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. AS A 
RESULT, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

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