Chennai - Polichalur zone got second round of heavy rain from 10:40pm to 11pm

NE Monsoon Watch - 2 (Advance Parameters)...3rd October 2013..Das report is long, please read detailed report with Part 1 also on Vagaries

Heavy rain ahead for S,E Uttarpradesh in 36hrs.

Before tomorrow evening, more HEAVY rain for E,N-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-E,E Uttarpradesh and for E,N Maharastra.
From Tomorrow noon, more HEAVY rain expected for S,S-E,E Uttarpradesh. And HEAVY rain for W,S Bihar and N,N-W Jharkhand from Friday evening.

Anti-cyclone is expected to take shape over N-W India from Saturday, expected N-E re-curve of Madhyapradesh circulation to happen in 24hrs

The present off-shore trough along S,central-coast maharastra and Goa to persist during next 48hrs.. HEAVY showers for these zones expected!

Madhyapradesh and central-coast Maharastra circulation persists !

Latest analysis show that circulation is seen over central Madhyapradesh and another along central Maharastra coast over Sea.

9pm, #Chennai - HEAVY rain seen over W,W-S-W and S-W from city at around 45 to 100km. Now near  Poonamalle, Tiruvallur zones.

#Bangalore - 7pm, "mostly no rain for the day."

#Belgaum - 9pm, "received rain at around 3pm for half an hour.Today whole day cloudy."

Indore - mostly cloudy weather but no rain

Shahdol (E Madhyapradesh) - Today, Intermittent sharp spells of rain. Once it was very heavy in afternoon.

Malout - Today it was mostly clear skies !

8:30pm, HEAVY rain continue over central,E,N, S-coast Maharastra, N,N-W Andhra, S,central,E Madhyapradesh and into S Uttarpradesh.
8:30pm, T showers also seen over S,S-E Karnataka, N,N-E,central Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/3jYXD 

Heavy rain over E,S-E Madhyapradesh today and Depression over Bay expected on 8-Oct

3pm, HEAVY rain over E,central,S Madhyapradesh, E,N Maharastra, S Chatisgarh, S Odisha, N,N-E Andhra, S Bengal .. http://ow.ly/i/3jMIZ

Latest analysis show that the low,mid level circulation is over E,central Madhyapradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/3jN4b 
The low level circulation near central Maharastra coast persists ... and the offshore trough is seen upto N Kerala http://ow.ly/i/3jNb1 

This offshore trough from central Maharastra coast to Karnataka coast is expected to persist till Saturday !
GFS model suggests a N-E re-curve for the present Madhyapradesh circulation in next 36hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/3jNg4 
But WRF models suggest a stagnant low level circulation over W Madhyapradesh during next 2 days !

A remnant circulation from Pacific is expected to pop into E-S-E Bay on 6/7-Oct... and this is expected to become LOW / Depression on 8-Oct 
E Bay may host a Depression or even a Cyclone by 9-Oct.. and track towards N-E Andhra and Odisha coast ! http://ow.ly/i/3jNpG 

#Chennai rain 3:20pm

#Chennai - 3:20pm, Showers seen over S-W zones of city. And more showers seen over W-N-W,N-W from city at around 60 to 100km.

#Chennai - 3:30pm, HEAVY rain now over Polichalur zone.


#Chennai - 4pm, HEAVY rain continue even now over Polichalur zone. Mild drizzle now over Pallavaram zone.. http://ow.ly/i/3jMXQ 

Heavy rain ahead for E.Madhyapradesh and S,S-E,E Uttarpradesh

Latest analysis show that the circulation has moved into S-E Madhyapradesh and N-E Maharastra ... http://ow.ly/i/3jn61 

There's another circulation seen over N-E corner Arabian sea near S Gujarat and Mumbai !
An offshore trough seen along S Maharastra coast and upto Goa... the N-E Arabian sea circulation is embedded in this.

This offshore trough is expected to last till Saturday evening ! Rain expected over S Maharastra coast, Goa and along Karnataka coast.
#Mumbai can expect moderate rain till Saturday.
#Goa can expect HEAVY rain till Sunday morning !

By Friday evening, the present S-E MP circulation is expected to drift into N-E Madhyapradesh, along S Uttarpradesh http://ow.ly/i/3jnGL

Due to this circulation, HEAVY rain ahead for E,S-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-E Uttarpradesh (Including Kanpur and Lucknow) before 3-Oct,evening.
Before tomorrow evening, scattered Heavy rain also for E,N,central Maharastra, S,central Chatisgarh and some into N-E Karnataka, N Andhra
Tomorrow as well showers linger over E,S-E Gujarat.
On Friday, HEAVY rain to push into N-E,E Madhyapradesh, E Uttarpradesh, N Chatisgarh and into W,S-W Bihar.

Latest GFS model suggests that the low level circulation will drift E-N-E after reaching N-E Madhyapradesh on Friday.
But WRF model suggests that the upper level circulation will continue to drift W-N-W and reach S-E Gujarat on 4-Oct http://ow.ly/i/3jove 

Till 6/7-Oct, "there is NO chance of monsoon withdrawal process"

#Chennai - 10pm, moderate showers seen over W-N-W from city at around 60km.. near Arakkonam town.

9:30pm, Due to circulation over S-E Madhyapradesh, E Maharastra, Chatisgarh ... HEAVY rain over E,central Maharastra http://ow.ly/i/3jmgi 
9:30pm, Heavy rain also over central,S Chatisgarh, N Andhra, E Madhyapradesh, E Gujarat...  http://ow.ly/i/3jmgi

Latest upper troposphere humidity map shows LESS humidity over N,N-W India.. signalling the END of monsoon for these zones !
Present S-E Madhyapradesh circulation is expected to bring rain for S,E Uttarpradesh, E Madhyapradesh till Saturday and withdrawal expected.

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore on 1-Oct After a hot and humid day, Develop of T Clouds in the eve n drizzled in parts pic http://t.co/Rky3dQBS87

Struck circulation expected, this time for Madhyapradesh !

Latest analysis show that, S Rajasthan circulation has almost vanished and Odisha coast LOW is expected to drift inland.
In next 18hrs, the Odisha coast LOW will push W-N-W and reach central Chatisgarh ... http://ow.ly/i/3i1P5 

By noon of 2-Oct, the circulation is expected to reach S,S-E Madhyapradesh.
... and this time the circulation is expected stay put over central Madhyapradesh till 4/5-Oct !!

HEAVY rain expected for Jharkhand, N,central Chatisgarh and Odisha before evening of 1-Oct.
Showers also forecast for E Maharastra, N,N-E Andhra and over central,S,E Madhyapradesh, before tomorrow evening.
From early hrs of 2-Oct, HEAVY rain will push into E,N-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-E Uttarpradesh.
Scattered rain expected over Madhyapradesh on 2-Oct!
From noon of 2-Oct, Heavy scattered rain also for E Maharastra and N Andhra.

Showers from remnant of present S Rajasthan circulation is expected to linger over E,S-E,central Gujarat till tomorrow evening.
During next 2 days, T showers possible along N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai and S,central Andhra coast.
Another 2 DRY days ahead for #Bangalore !

The present S Rajathan circulation and Odisha coast LOW is not allowing the #Monsoon withdrawal to happen. No further withdrawal till 8-Oct.