Monsoon Watch -8  (Periodical Progress and Current Status). ..see Vagaries

Why #chennai did not get the T.shower today ?? http://ow.ly/bytvg 

RT @chirag_roshan: @weatherofindia Currently It's Heavily Raining In Mehsana,North Gujarat From Last 30 Minutes ☺ time 8:45 pm !! 

Cloudless weather in Mumbai on 13 June

RT @rajugana:  Baroda 6.20pm, The first Pre-monsoon rain of the season, T.Storm with heavy downpour.. a pic http://t.co/4xJtaxYc

RT @rajugana:  Baroda 6.20pm, Heavy rain accompanied by thunder and wind. Cool n fresh, water water everywhere.. http://t.co/hEUZchW7 

RT @rajugana: Baroda 3.50pm, After a hot & humid day, Development of T.Clouds from SW, Windy, rumbling of thunder,pic http://t.co/anfxgavn

This Is What It's Like In Sweltering Mumbai Right Before Monsoon Season Begins... http://ow.ly/bxOUk 

#chennai - 1:18pm, good to see an early Sea breeze from East upto 0.3km. Now having Good cloud formations. A T.Shower in another 1 or 2 hrs!

@mobieng >> Monsoon for Bihar will be after 20-Jun.. not before that! We'll keep it updated.

As most of us are now wondering how and when the SWM is going to move ahead, and its future course, I thought it better to again Analise and prepare another another MW.
Vagaries will be publishing the next in the Monsoon Watch in the running series tonite.
We shall be discussing the behavior of the Monsoon this year, and how favourable/Unfavourable it has been vis-a-vis our forecasts. It is not new for the SWM to behave erratically, it just varies from our expectations.

eg: Vagaries had estimated a slow down in the progress after Moving into Mumbai on the 13th of June. SWM was forecasted to be stuck at 20N for some time after the progress into N.Konkan.
Reality: It is stuck at S.Konkan now.

These and the reasons will be discussed.
Draft is ready and final touches may take time, hence it will be published late tonite.
Lengthy reading is boring, so i will keep it short and details of meteorological explanations will be avoided.
--
Regards,
Rajesh.