IMD dismisses 'El Nino' factor for slow progress of Monsoon

Even as a truant monsoon raised concerns over the prospects of Kharif crop, meteorologists here on Wednesday refused to give credence to the theory that the 'El Nino' impact could be the factor behind its slow progress in the country.

Still hopeful of its revival by the June end, India Meteorological Department's (IMD) Central Weather Observatory officials said the monsoon after getting stuck over Karnataka, was advancing further into southern parts of Gujarat, Kutch and Konkan.

A clearer picture on its further progress was expected to emerge on Thursday, they added.

However, the Deputy Director General (Weather Forecasting) A.B. Muzumdar on Wednesday sought to play down the reported 'El Nino' impact as being responsible for the tentative monsoon so far.

"This phenomenon occurs after every three to four years but it has no direct cause and effect relationship with the monsoons in India," he told PTI.

Weak Monsoon hits Mumbai.

Mumbai rain

IMD monsoon status::
The southwest monsoon has further advanced into entire central Arabian sea, some parts of north Arabian sea, south Gujarat state, remaining parts of north Konkan and some more parts of Madhya Maharahtra. The northern limit of monsoon passes through Lat. 23.0°N / Long. 60.0°E and Lat. 23.0°N / Long. 65.0°E, Bhuj, Baroda, Nasik, Sholapur, Hyderabad, Kalingapatnam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.

Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over remaining parts of Gujarat state during next 48 hours.

Meanwhile a weak current of monsoon is over Mumbai.
Following news piece taken from News.rediff.com.
Mumbai city and suburbs received intermittent rains throughout the day on Tuesday. The Weather Bureau said Colaba recorded 6.8mm of rainfall and Santacruz 5.1 mm. Normal life was not affected due to the rains.

Rainfall likely to be 93% of normal, says government

Original from:: http://www.ndtv.com/news/india/delayed_monsoon_govt_drawing_up_contingency_plan.php

It's official now. The government's forecast says India will have a below average monsoon overall.

On the whole, the forecast is for seven percent below average rainfall, with a margin of error between plus and minus four percent, which means theoretically between eleven percent to four percent below average rain.

The Met department has downgraded the forecast for the Monsoon from "near normal" to "below normal".

So, the prediction is for 93% of long term average rainfall.

But the big worry is that northwestern India, which is the granary of the country, is forecast to get only 81% of the average rainfall.

But predictions and models aside, the Monsoon is known to catch up and cover shorfalls. There is a strong hope for a revival of the monsoon as there are rain bearing clouds over both the Arabian Sea & the Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has stepped in and asked the Cabinet Secretary to convene a meeting of a Committee of Secretaries to monitor the situation on a daily basis.

The rains, which should have covered most parts of the country by now, have stopped their movement ahead. The worry is that sixty per cent of the crops are rain fed and the government is drawing up contingency plans to counter the situation.

The north and central parts of the country are already sizzling under a heat wave and a drought will derail the newly-elected government's food security promises.

Heat wave prevails

The weathermen have warned of severe conditions over most parts of the country. Temperatures are well above 40 degrees.

Uttar Pradesh has been consistently recording temperatures above 40 degrees. So is Bihar, where water scarcity is adding to the heat trauma.

Jharkhand is reeling at 44 degrees. Temperatures are about 5 degrees above normal in Orissa. Chhatisgarh is scorching at 44 and in MP too water woes are adding to the crisis. Vidarbha is above 40 degrees for the past 7 days and so is Rajasthan.

There is no respite in Delhi and the noon temperatures can rise up to 46 degrees.

Depression "93A" makes landfall..

Take a look at latest sat pic of depression "93A" making landfall over Southern Gujarat.

Along it comes weak South-west monsoon to Gujarat.
It seems monsoon has by-passed Mumbai...!!!

Latest IMD report::
The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved further northwestwards and crossed the coast near Diu of south Gujarat coast between 1830 to 2030 hrs IST of today, the 23rd June 2009. The system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 24 hrs. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gujarat region during the same period. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is also likely over north Konkan during next 24 hrs.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off Gujarat coast during next 12 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

Poor monsoon so far (Chart)

WMO monsoon projection

IMD has been predicting a normal monsoon during the June-September season since March.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) seems to have taken a cautious stand over the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) projection of a ‘poor monsoon’ due to a probable ‘El Nino’ impact. The IMD did not agree with WMO’s projections, saying, “El Nino and the progress of monsoon are not mutually exclusive events”, and remained non-committal over its earlier projection of a “normal monsoon” for the June-September 2009 season.

“We will consider the possibility of the “El Nino” impact on the progress of monsoon in India and then announce a final projection on June 25 in New Delhi. Till then, we would not like to comment on the ‘El Nino factor’ discussed by the WMO,” A B Mazumdar, deputy director general, IMD, Pune, told Business Standard.

Interestingly, top scientists and researchers from the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) expressed concerns over the development of “El Nino” in the Pacific Ocean region. “If El Nino impact is built in the central portion of the Pacific Ocean, then there is every chance of the same having an adverse impact on the progress of monsoon in India,” scientists maintained.

The IMD has been predicting a normal monsoon during the June-September season since March. However, the south-western winds did not progress across the country even after hitting Kerala at the right time on May 23. The WMO has predicted a “greater than average” chance of an “El Nino” known globally for droughts and adverse weather conditions, building over the Pacific Ocean.

The report suggests that India had experienced a severe drought during the year 2004 when a similar ‘El Nino’ condition was observed. The delayed monsoon has already caused a shortfall of rains by 45 per cent in June. The WMO report has expressed concerns over the progress of monsoon in the wake of a probable ‘El Nino’ formation.

This development is very significant as the “delayed monsoon” brings along a big risk to the Indian economy because of its adverse impact on the summer crops (kharif). The sowing for the kharif season happens during the months of July and August and this is the period when India receives almost 65 per cent of its annual rain fall. This rainfall is more crucial since more than 60 per cent of kharif cultivation is directly dependent on the monsoon.

This comes as a complete contrast to the IMD projections of a normal rainfall during the season. Mazumdar further stated, “El Nino impact is developed far away from India and hence, it does not necessarily affect Indian rains. While the year 2004 (when El Nino had developed) saw a severe drought across India, we must remember the year 1997, when the country received heavy rains even with an intense El Nino situation. Hence, we would not like to associate with the WMO report as of now.” When asked, if the IMD expects a curtailed monsoon during the June-September period, Mazumdar avoided comment.

IITM scientist Krishna Kumar told Business Standard, “The progress of the monsoon has been severely hit. If El Nino impact is built within the Pacific Ocean, then there are chances of the monsoon progress being hit further. Although, there is not a direct relation between these two things, a possibility of an adverse impact cannot be ruled out.” Kumar added, “Indian monsoon is hit only when the El Nino is built in the central region of the Pacific Ocean. There have been El Nino instances in the Eastern region, which did not hit the monsoon. Hence, we must observe the development of El Nino and only then, we can predict its impact.”

Another researcher from IITM pointed out at the chances of further subtraction of the monsoon over next two weeks. “We have observed moderate indications of an El Nino development. And therefore, we have so far had a poor progress. This can be associated with the developing El Nino. Still, we cannot draw any conclusions at this point of time,” the researcher said.

Weak winds signal poor rains

The IMD’s national weather forecasting centre in Pune on Tuesday said the progress of south-western winds had been hit by the dry winds flowing from the northern region towards the south. Cloud formation was, thus, below expectations. This has also weakened the winds flowing in from the west coast. If the situation continued, poor rainfall would be observed for another month, the IMD said.

Original from:: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/wmo-monsoon-projection-imd-cautious/361938/

Delhiites feel the heat as mercury touches 44 degree C

Mercury level touched the 44-degree Celsius mark, five degrees about normal here on Tuesday.

The usual hustle-bustle of traffic and people on Delhi roads was missing on Tuesday with most of the local people preferring to stay indoors.

Major landmarks, like India Gate, which attracts hundreds of tourists every day, saw a miniscule arrival of visitors today.

“The temperature is high in New Delhi. I came to Delhi on a holiday but it is really hot here… Ii is hard even to step out in such weather,” said Rajendra Verma, a tourist.

People, who were compelled to move out of their houses, could be seen running for shelter under trees or carrying umbrellas to avoid the sunrays.

Local residents opined that it would be unwise for anyone to move out without taking necessary precautions against the sweltering heat.

“I want to say that please take protection during summers…drink lemon water and try to avoid stepping out in the sun,” said Monika, a local resident.

Meanwhile, Indian Meteorological Department has warned that this situation would continue for the next four-five days.

“We are not expecting any respite from this heat wave condition over north-west India because such type of weather will continue for another four days, so temperature will around 44 and 45 over northwest India will prevail for another four or five days,” said B. S. Yadav, an official of the Indian Meteorological Department.

He added that southwest monsoon might cover western India by first week of July

Depression "93A" in striking distance

Latest satellite shot of depression "93A".

It's in striking distance,and it's outer swirl is over southern Gujarat coast.

Latest IMD warning::
ARB 01/2009/05 Dated: 23. 06. 2009
Time of issue: 2030 hours IST
Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea, close to Gujarat coast
The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 23rd June 2009 over northeast Arabian Sea near lat. 20.50 N and long. 71.00 E, close to south Gujarat and Diu coast near Diu. The system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and cross south Gujarat and Diu coast, near Diu within a few hours.
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 24 hrs. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gujarat region during the same period. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is also likely over north Konkan during next 24 hrs.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off north Gujarat coast during next 24 hrs and south Gujarat coast during next 12 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

Rough sea scares people in KanyaKumari district

Rameswaram/Kanyakumari ,June 16: Sea remained rough in parts of Kanyakumari and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu as giant waves left three persons injured and caused damage to houses and roads in coastal hamlets today.

The sea was "abnormally rough..In fact fierce" in Kolachel, Kodimunai, Vaniyankudi, Kurumbanai, Erayumanthurai, and Ramanthurai in Kanyakumari district and Mukundharayar chattiram in this island, officials said.

Three persons including, two women, were injured as the violent waves tossed them in Erayumanthurai area. They have been hospitalised.

More than 30 houses were damaged in Erayumanthurai and 25 houses in Kadiyapatinam villages in Kanyakumari district as sea water entered the houses, bringing back dark memories of the 2004 tsunami, a report from Kanyakumari said.

Fishermen kept away from the sea while boat services to the Thiruvalluvar statue, a popular tourist spot in the sea off Kanyakumari, were suspended.

People at Kadiyapattinam were scared by the unusually high (about 20 feet) sea waves, which leaped past the barrier wall and inundated the village.

Water also entered huts close to the shore in Dhanushkodi and Rameswaram-Dhanushkodi road suffered extensive damage.

Four Sri Lankan Tamil refugees were stranded at the fourth sand dune between Rameswaram and Sri Lanka as the boatmen who ferried them could not navigate in the rough sea.

Gujarat: Late monsoon coming with a bang!

Late monsoon for northern India. Now Gujarat prepares for late monsoon with a bang.

Yesterday's LOW pressure system "93A" is now organized itself into a potential Arabian sea Cyclone.

JTWC is tracking the system as a potential Cyclone.

JTWC warning:: ***********************************

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
71.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 71.4E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND
A 221611Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP OVER THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS IN LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST, LAND
INFLUENCES COULD HAMPER THE INFLOW TO THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPER-
ATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
***********************************

Here's the JTWC warning graphic...

Latest satellite pic shows...

Good circulation cloud mass west of Mumbai and in striking distance from South-Gujarat.

Monsoon clouds covering almost FUll of Bay of Bengal. And monsoon is active over south-Kerala.