Latest sat pic shows Huge cloud formations over the North-east of Bay, but the predicted LOW is over North of Bay. .... Already we have a Low pressure trough over Orissa coast.

LOW in north Bay of Bengal

There's a possibility of a LOW pressure formation over the Northern extreme of Bay of Bengal... these kind of formations are typical during the South-west monsoon season.
These lows will trigger more monsoon rains for Northern Bay region and to the western ghats region.
Latest GFS also predicts a LOW to the extreme north of Bay.

And latest satellite shot also shows some sign of it.

Monsoon:
Monsoon will revive over the western coast in next 2 or 3 days along with the LOW formation over the northern Bay.
Chennai:
Chennai was so hot for the past 2 weeks from 20-May-09.
City is experiencing temperature of around and over 40 deg Celsius for the past 13 days. Today we had signs of a GOOD thunder cell formation and then fading away.
We'll have a share of late evening thunder shower in next 2 or 3 days.
Today also the temperature was near 40 deg Celsius.

IMD watch for fresh Bay ‘low’ even as lull persists

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the vigil for what likely is a brewing ‘low’ in North Bay of Bengal later this week (June 4, Thursday).

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is already on record with its projection of a churn in North Bay but had little found little support from peer models.

WESTERLY TRIGGER

The ECMWF says that the system would be triggered as an itinerant westerly trough dips into the Head Bay.

The causative western disturbance moved into Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday with a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The entourage is predicted to get a move to east India during the course of the week.

The ECMWF sees the system locking itself to a slot over the Head Bay and staying there for a while.

Proximity to land grants it hardly any elbowroom to move around the waters to intensify.

But the system may beat odds to intensify before making a landfall, yet again, over West Bengal.

This is the track chosen by predecessor Cyclone Aila as it crossed land earlier last week.

LIKELY STORM

Given that there is no much room for lateral movement, what could likely fuel the growth of the Bay system is its staying power over waters (June 4 to a likely landfall date of June 9 according to ECMWF) and the low vertical wind shear from a still poorly developed monsoon.

Early monsoon and end monsoon stages offer themselves as windows of opportunities for cyclone formation thanks to low vertical wind shear.

High wind shear during peak monsoon lops off towering heads of building storms and prevents cyclogenesis.

ECMWF projections also indicate the monsoon getting a leg-up over the southeast coast as also parts of east-central India (parts of interior Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra) as the Bay system gets anchored.

The IMD update on Sunday also noted that there has been no progress in the monsoon from its May-25 bearing.

Numerical models suggest that further advance is not likely during next three to four days.

WEST COAST RAINS


The activity is likely to remain subdued over south peninsula except west coast where rainfall activity is likely to increase during the next two days.

A persistent trough/wind discontinuity along the ‘trunk’ of the mainland amplified the poorly endowed monsoon features obtaining on Sunday.

The trough ran down from Jharkhand to north coastal Andhra Pradesh through Chhattisgarh headed by cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand.

It featured the confluence of opposing wind streams and resultant unstable weather.

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.

Isolated rainfall occurred over Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Kerala and Lakshadweep and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north interior Karnataka and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

A warning spoke about the possibility of isolated heavy rain over Kerala and Lakshadweep.

June likely to be less hot for Chennai

Original from:: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/June-likely-to-be-less-hot/articleshow/4598694.cms
posted on 31-May-09

CHENNAI: The hot, stuffy weather prevailing over the past few days may not last long. "It is still summer, but in June the mercury is unlikely to
cross 40 degrees Celsius on consecutive days as it did in May, or touch 42 degrees C," said Y E A Raj, deputy director general, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC). Day temperatures may not go beyond 38 or 39 degree C. "Whether it will lead to better comfort level depends on the revival of the southwest monsoon, which has been dormant after setting in early," he added.

The formation of heavy clouds over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday is an encouraging sign and there are indications that the southwest monsoon may revive in the coming few days. "Already many districts received rainfall on Saturday and the weather is likely to improve," said Raj. Chennai, too, fared better, with the mercury recording 39 degrees C on Friday and Saturday, with the forecast for Sunday being 39 degrees C.

In the past decade, barring 1994 and 2004, day temperatures in May crossed 41 degree C. The highest ever - 45 degree C - was recorded on May 31, 1910 and in 2003. However, with the Met department forecasting 39 degree C for Sunday, it could mark the the beginning of better weather.

Chennai - now 9:35am it's already 35.0°C.. going to be a very hot day with 65% chance of thunder shower late in evening.

Yesterday, thunder storm activity was low all thru India. There were signs of monsoon revival, now it's subdued.

Test message from my www.ping.fm account

Athirapally Falls, Kerala

Varkala - beach, Kerala

Global warming causes 300,000 deaths a year

original from:: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/may/29/1

A family wades through flood waters to catch a relief boat, north-east of Patna, India. Photograph: Manish Swarup/AP

Climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year and is affecting 300m people, according to the first comprehensive study of the human impact of global warming.

It projects that increasingly severeheatwaves, floods, storms and forest fires will be responsible for as many as 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making it the greatest humanitarian challenge the world faces.

Economic losses due to climate change today amount to more than $125bn a year - more than all the present world aid. The report comes from former UN secretary general Kofi Annan's thinktank, the Global Humanitarian Forum. By 2030, the report says, climate change could cost $600bn a year.

Civil unrest may also increase because of weather-related events, the report says: "Four billion people are vulnerable now and 500m are now at extreme risk. Weather-related disasters ... bring hunger, disease, poverty and lost livelihoods. They pose a threat to social and political stability".

If emissions are not brought under control, within 25 years, the report states:

• 310m more people will suffer adverse health consequences related to temperature increases

• 20m more people will fall into poverty

• 75m extra people will be displaced by climate change.

Climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water supplies . "Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation, hinder economic development and damage ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between floods and droughts. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to become water stressed by climate change by the 2030. ".

The study says it is impossible to be certain who will be displaced by 2030, but that tens of millions of people "will be driven from their homelands by weather disasters or gradual environmental degradation. The problem is most severe in Africa, Bangladesh, Egypt, coastal zones and forest areas. ."

The study compares for the first time the number of people affected by climate change in rich and poor countries. Nearly 98% of the people seriously affected, 99% of all deaths from weather-related disasters and 90% of the total economic losses are now borne by developing countries. The populations most at risk it says, are in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, south Asia and the small island states of the Pacific.

But of the 12 countries considered least at risk, including Britain, all but one are industrially developed. Together they have made nearly $72bn available to adapt themselves to climate change but have pledged only $400m to help poor countries. "This is less than one state in Germany is spending on improving its flood defences," says the report.

The study comes as diplomats from 192 countries prepare to meet in Bonn next week for UN climate change talks aimed at reaching a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in December in Copenhagen. "The world is at a crossroads. We can no longer afford to ignore the human impact of climate change. This is a call to the negotiators to come to the most ambitious agreement ever negotiated or to continue to accept mass starvartion, mass sickness and mass migration on an ever growing scale," said Kofi Annan, who launched the report today in London.

Annan blamed politians for the current impasse in the negotiations and widespread ignorance in many countries. "Weak leadership, as evident today, is alarming. If leaders cannot assume responsibility they will fail humanity. Agreement is in the interests of every human being."

Barabra Stocking, head of Oxfam said: "Adaptation efforts need to be scaled up dramatically.The world's poorest are the hardest hit, but they have done the least to cause it.

Nobel peace prizewinner Wangari Maathai, said: "Climate change is life or death. It is the new global battlefield. It is being presented as if it is the problem of the developed world. But it's the developed world that has precipitated global warming."

Calculations for the report are based on data provided by the World Bank, the World Health organisation, the UN, the Potsdam Insitute For Climate Impact Research, and others, including leading insurance companies and Oxfam. However, the authors accept that the estimates are uncertain and could be higher or lower. The paper was reviewed by 10 of the world's leading experts incluing Rajendra Pachauri, head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Jeffrey Sachs, of Columbia University and Margareta Wahlström, assistant UN secretary general for disaster risk reduction.