Saturday, May 27, 2017

94B to develop into Cyclone and "delay" in Monsoon for Kerala !!



10:30am, 94B WML over central Bay is slowly consolidating and drifted NNW.


The northern limit of SW #monsoon can be seen here in this chart ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/vehMZ.gif 
94B is expected to become Depression in next 36hrs and continue to move North.
GFS expects it to develop into Cyclone on 30-May ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/vehTU.jpg 


The timing of Bay Low 94B is perfect as far as #monsoon is concerned, Natural process is that the Bay LOW moving north will drag monsoon into S coast Kerala ! but, GFS is skeptical about this happening !! 
94B is expected to make landafall as a Cyclone over S Bangladesh on 30/31-May ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/vei4L.jpg 
By this time 31-May, #monsoon current at low-levels "can" make a pseudo entry/presence into S Kerala.
There'll not be good winds at 700hpa ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/veibR.gif 

On 31-May, the 200hpa Jet stream is expected to turn easterlies upto 12N latitude...  sign of #Monsoon ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/veiir.jpg 
Both ECMWF and GFS model expects a SE / central Arabian sea circulation on 2-Jun, this will make #monsoon to push into #Kerala on 2 or 3-Jun ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/veiwv.jpg 

Friday, May 26, 2017

May 26, 2017 at 03:42PM


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Thursday, May 25, 2017

May 25, 2017 at 05:00PM


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May 25, 2017 at 04:52PM


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May 25, 2017 at 04:42PM


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May 25, 2017 at 04:36PM


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May 25, 2017 at 04:34PM


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May 25, 2017 at 10:01AM


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Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Bay has popped a circulation, now all eyes on Monsoon reaching Kerala coast

RT @ChocolateLavaC1: 
Delhi: At 29.4°C, city sees lowest maximum temperature in May in seven years  https://t.co/hCdCSv2D5D 

Yesterday, Bilaspur touches #omg 49.3 C .. and here are some above 45s ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v4YSl.jpg 

#Chennai - moderate heat Yesterday, Nungambakkam 36.2 C, Airport 38.3 C.
Today it's bit high so far .. Nungambakkam 37.6 C, Airport 40 C


During next 3 days, there's NO change expected in #heatwave conditions across central,E-central India, S,central,SE Peninsula ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v4ZO5.jpg 

#Chennai - During next 3 days, city will record temps around 38 C, while the W,SW,NW suburbs can have 1 or 2 C above it... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v50Ca.jpg

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Today again, LWD seen from NW Karantaka to NW Tamilnadu all along W-ghats and another from S Tamilnadu to SW Bengal along SE-coast India.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v51oU.jpg 

#Monsoon has not propagated North during past 4 days.
Now, SSE Bay has popped an all important circulation ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v51Yv.jpg 
This Bay circulation is expected to slowly drift North into Bay and pulling Monsoon into Srilanka and then into S Kerala in coming days !! .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v58cE.jpg 

Both ECMWF and GFS does not expect a SE Arabian sea circulation till 30th, while the present Bay circulation is expected to move North ! GFS expects the Monsoon for S Kerala on 31-May.
ECMWF expects on 30-May for S Kerala... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v59js.jpg 

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Present trend of scattered T showers over N,N-central,NW,W,SW #Tamilnadu and all over #Kerala to continue for next 2 days ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/v5abP.jpg 
Next 2 days, Scattered T showers also expected over W-ghats,S,SW Karnataka, #Bengaluru , NE Andhra, Odisha and into SW,W,central Bengal.