October 09, 2015 at 06:52AM

6:40am, 92B-heavy rain over Myanmar, heavy rain along Kerala, S Andhra got battered. #weather

from Instagram

NE monsoon for S-coast Andhra, Chennai and Tamilnadu coast expected on 17/18-Oct

Chennai - 8pm, a HEAVY T shower is drifting ENE. Now seen over NNW,NW from city at 45 to 150km and nearing Avadi.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dzBDH.jpg

In next 36hrs... scattered T showers for S,S-E Karnataka, #Bangalore, N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai and into S Andhra.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dzCi0.jpg

1st NE #monsoon showers are expected to reach #Chennai, central,N Tamilnadu coast and S-coast Andhra on 17/18-Oct. 10 days to go !!

92B - almost pushed into S,S-E Bangladesh, 91A - trying to intensify !

92B - As a LOW, it is slowly pushing into S,S-E Bangladesh.. Heavy rain seen over S-E Bangladesh, Myanmar coast... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dzhur.jpg
92B - is expected to push inland upto central Myanmar and weaken to a N-S trough from S,S-E Bangladesh to central Bay in 24hrs.

92B is expected to dump HEAVY rain S-E Bangladesh, coast,central,N Myanmar, S,central zones of N-E states of India in next 36hrs !

4:30pm, visible imagery of 91A shows the exposed low level circulation and has drifted WNW away from Karnataka coast .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dziID.jpg
91A - Pressure is around 1004mb, JTWC estimates it as 1000mb... it's almost a depression now !
GFS model expects 91A to drift NNW in next 36hrs and weaken !.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dzj8y.jpg

A trough is expected to drop from 91A upto S-coast Kerala, this'll push HEAVY rain for Kerala coast, S-coast Karnataka and S-tip Tamilnadu.
HEAVY rain for Kerala coast, S-coast Karnataka and S-tip Tamilnadu is expected during next 36hrs... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dzlkM.jpg

October 08, 2015 at 03:50PM

2:15pm, rain in kolkata due to 92B. #weather

from Instagram

October 07, 2015 at 07:32PM

After this 91A and 92B... GFS model suggest that first easterlies (NE Monsoon) is expected to reach Tamilnadu coast on 17/18-Oct !! #iwm

No cyclone expected out of the twins, 91A and 92B.

92B is now a weal low pressure area and drifted North, now near to S Bengal coast, S coast Bangladesh... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dxG9Z.jpg
92B's pressure is around 1008 / 1010mb according to NRLMRY and GFS estimates it at 1006mb... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dxGJV.jpg
92B's mid circulation is weak and seen over same location, but the upper-level (500hpa) is very weak and tilted S-W near to S-coast Andhra.

Meanwhile, 91A - is now located near Karnataka coast over Arabian sea... pressure around 1005mb... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dxHQ4.jpg
91A - mid, upper-level circulation are in location and better organized ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dxI4i.jpg

92B is expected to intensify to WML and push NNE and then NE into S-E Bangladesh on evening of 8-Oct .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dxJ4E.jpg
On Friday, the remnant of 92B is expected to drive upto central Myanmar giving heavy rain for Bangladesh coast, central Myanmar, S Bengal.
92B is expected to bring HEAVY rain for S,central zones of N-E states of India in next 2/3 days !

91A - is expected to drift North upto S-coast Maharastra, Goa coast in next 2 days, it "may" intensify to a WML... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dxLnE.jpg
91A is expected to bring HEAVY rain along Karnataka coast, Goa and Kerala during next 2 days.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Before midnight of 8-Oct...
Karnataka coast, N,central Kerala are expected to get heavy rain due to 91A.

In next 36hrs... Heavy scattered T showers expected over W,central,S Karnataka, N,N-W,N-E Tamilnadu, S Andhra.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dxMm0.jpg

More T showers expected for #Chennai on evening, night of 8-Oct.

Due to 92B.. scattered Heavy rain for S Bengal, #Kolkata and over S,central zones of N-E states before midnight of 8-Oct.

October 07, 2015 at 07:02PM

Chennai - 7pm, moderate T showers over SW,Central, S-central zones of city. Raining in Polichalur. #weather

from Instagram

October 07, 2015 at 06:08PM

Chennai - 5:30pm, T shower seen over WNW at around 40 to 70km from city. #weather

from Instagram

October 07, 2015 at 01:05PM

Chennai - 1pm, good convective activity observed. Very good chance of T shower today. #weather

from Instagram

The UAC in the South East Arabian Sea will descend as a Low by Tuesday night. Initially around 1006/1008 mb.
This will deepen by Wednesday and Thursday, and after tracking along the West coast of India till about 15N, may move towards NW.
Heavy Rainfall in Kerala, Coastal Karnatak and some regions of Goa on Tuesday 6th /Wednesday7th /Thursday8th.
Thunder showers a plenty for Bangalore all through this week.

The SWM has withdrawn in all regions North from Gujarat, M.P. North Chattisgarh and Bihar.

Alongwith this Arabian Sea Low, the Monsoon axis, both ends, will slip South of Maharastra. As it moves Southwards, the SWM starts retreating, and The NEM conditions start strengthening. See 200 stream chart.(Shall put up a note soon on NEM).
Chennai too will be seeing almost daily thunder showers this week.

Pune may get a Shower in some parts till Wednesday.

The UAC over North Bay off Odisha coast has formed, but, due to unfavourable land winds, may not intensify. System as an UAC will track North into Bangladesh by Thursday or Friday.
Kolkata may get the last thunder showers on Wednesday and Thursday.Monsoon could be withdrawn after the system dissolves.

New Delhi remains hot this week, around 36/37c. But we may see the nights getting cooler to around 20c by the weekend.
from www.vagaries.in