July 16, 2015 at 06:06PM

Bangalore - 4:50pm, raining over Marathahalli, Koramangala. #weather

from Instagram

Heavy rain ahead for Uttarpradesh, E-central India in next 36hrs

Upcoming circulation over East end of Monsoon axis, over Bihar is expected to take full shape by morning, 18-Jul.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bQHZI.jpg
This circulation is expected to consolidate and move West into E,central Madhyapradesh by Monday, 20-Jul.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bQI61.jpg

Again a weak west coast offshore trough seen from S coast Maharastra to N,central coast Kerala ... http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bQIlt.jpg
1:30pm, West coast is having very less rain again... Heavy rain over Uttarpradesh, Uttarakhand ... http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bQIvY.jpg

In 24hrs... There's less rain forecast again along Maharastra coast and scattered heavy rain for Karnataka coast and Kerala.

Before morning, 17-Jul..
Heavy, widespread rain for E,central Uttarpradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, W,central Bengal.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bQIHx.jpg

Scattered T showers again expected over S Karnataka, Bangalore, S Andhra, N Tamilnadu and some into Chennai before midnight today.
On 17-Jul... Rain again will push into #Delhi, W Uttarpradesh into Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal and S,central Kashmir.

apology

My expectations of revival of SWM in west cost went wrong. My friend at Coorg told me that he did NOT witness such a continuous DRY SPELL (during the past 34 years) in the representative month of July in west coast.  He considers it a curse.  Mean while I apologise for  my incorrect WET WEATHER version over west coast.  With limited data [& knowledge on meteorology too] I have foreseen.  wet weather which went wrong.

 HOWEVER this current Dundee Sat Imagery gives hope of wet weather for west coast.

Even though Mascarene high plays decisive role  a positive sign of slight revival of SWM over west coast is evident.

The seasonal RF upto 15.7.2015 for Kerala is
 -32 % Similarly for Karnataka State also SWM RF is deficient

July 15, 2015 at 06:15PM

Chennai - 6:12pm, T cell over NW at 50km. System moving NE. #weather

from Instagram

July 15, 2015 at 05:46PM

Belgaum - 5:23pm, Raining in Belgaum for past 15 min. #iwm

July 15, 2015 at 05:44PM

4:51pm, raining in Dehradun. #weather

from Instagram

July 15, 2015 at 05:15PM

Chennai - 5:10pm, a heavy T shower has popped over WNW from city at 80km. Next update in 30min. #iwm

July 15, 2015 at 04:46PM

RT @ajitmishra71: this time we get heavy rainfall at Bhagalpur, Bihar, in Eastern Bihar. temp. about 28C at 12:30 PM #iwm

July 15, 2015 at 04:39PM

Bangalore at 4pm. And drizzling in Mysore. #weather

from Instagram

Another circulation expected over E India and less rain for Maharastra coast till 18-Jul

Latest analysis show a good East-coast offshore trough from S Bengal to S-E coast Tamilnadu all along S-E coast India .. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPnLT.jpg
But, West coast offshore trough is still weak .. and seen only along S-coast Maharastra to N Kerala coast !

11:30am, Heavy rain over Bihar, N,central Bengal 
And
Karnataka coast, N coast Kerala also getting rainfall... http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPnUe.jpg
Heavy cloud cover over Chennai, N Tamilnadu, S Andhra ... due to tail of T shower over Bay... http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPnUe.jpg

Today, at upper-level a weak circulation seen over central Bay ... and weak, mini circulation over, along S Andhra.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPo68.jpg
This upper-level circulation over S Andhra is expected to persist for another 24hrs.
Along with another circulation over central Karnataka
This upper-level circulation can bring T showers for S,central Karantaka, Bangalore, N Tamilnadu, S Andhra, Chennai .. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPomc.jpg

Till, 17/18-Jul... the west-coast offshore trough is expected persist only from S Maharastra coast to N/central Kerala coast.

N-Bay is not expected to pop a circulation before 18-Jul.
Instead, on 17-Jul, a circulation is expected over Bihar .. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPoy1.jpg
From 18-Jul, the upcoming Bihar circulation is expected to drift West ... http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPoBK.jpg

There's NO heavy, widespread rain expected along Maharastra coast, Gujarat and Mumbai till 18-Jul.
Latest MJO forecast suggests a Neutral phase after 23/24-Jul followed by a wet phase from 29-Jul to August end.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPoP5.jpg
This (MJO forecast) may suggest bad news (No widespread rain) for West coast, W India even till 25-Jul.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

During next 48hrs..
Heavy rain ahead for Karnataka coast, N,central Kerala and some over S-coast Maharastra.
Due to upper-level circulation over S Andhra.
Today scattered T showers for S Karnataka, Bangalore, N Tamilnadu, S,central Andhra, Chennai

#Chennai - can expect a T shower before early hrs of 16-Jul... http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPp75.jpg

Many zones in East India, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bengal, Bihar, N,central Chatisgarh to get widespread rain on today and 16-Jul.
Over East India, the rainfall intensity is expected to increase over Bihar and E Uttarpradesh from evening, 16-Jul.. http://static.ow.ly/photos/normal/bPpfN.jpg

On evening of 16-Jul... more scattered T showers expected over S Karnataka, Bangalore, S Andhra and into N,N-E Tamilnadu and for Chennai.