Monday, December 09, 2013

Beta drift [?] or backward drift



Cyclones in north Indian Oceans [i.e in Bay of Bengal &  Arabian Sea which are the real extension of Indian Ocean in the east and west side of India] generally tend to move in North & north westerly direction.  That is why the eastern coast of India is more prone to cyclone hit than its western counterpart.  Similarly recarvature i.e movement in NEly direction is also a common feature of a cyclone movement.  But there is rare evidence that the cyclone drifted south west wards. Will this drift be caused by the advection of the background potential vorticity field by the storm circulation?

 Because,

[1] The SST from Cape Comorin to Puducherry, especially in Mannar Bay and in  Coramandal coast at least between Vedaranyam and Marakanam is relatively high than compare to elsewhere in the Bay.

[2] The horizontal warm air advection in the above said coastal stretch will lead to the formation of vortex.

[3] This formation may be in SWly direction to the current location of VSCS.
                                                                                                    
Beta Drift
The drift of a tropical cyclone through the large-scale background wind in which it is embedded is known as Beta drift. The drift is caused by the advection of the background potential vorticity field by the storm circulation. Beta drift generally causes tropical cyclones to move pole ward and westward relative to the motion they would have if the background potential vorticity field were unperturbed by the storms. This drift speed is generally around 1–2 m/s.
Courtesy:  American Meteorological Society. .

Madi - NO movement above 14N for past 6hrs

ADT analysis of Madi at 6:30pm shows that pressure has dropped even more to 970mb and NO movement during past 6hrs.
MADI - Satellite IR, 7pm suggest that convective activity is seen over S,S-W quadrants .. showing signs of weakening http://ow.ly/i/3Y3DL 

GFS model expects MADI to "Stop and Weaken" at this present location in next 18hrs.
MADI - Before taking S-W movement the system is expected to degrade to Deep Depression on Tuesday night.. http://ow.ly/i/3Y3UR 
Degraded Cyclone MADI as a LOW may reach central Tamilnadu coast on Thursday, 12-Dec.

A weak W.D system is affecting Kashmir today... expected to persist with scattered rain/snow till 11-Dec.

Today morning cold over N #India ... Ludhiana = 5 C, Lucknow = 7 C, New Delhi (airport) = 11 C.

Adampur records 4.4 C today morning.

RT @astrostation: #Nagpur  -  9.3 C today morning !
#Chennai - 7:24pm, temperature around 26 C. Winds have reduced.

Bangalore - 6:27pm, "very cold and dry here at Koramangala. slight breeze.."

Madi - noon update, moved North again

ADT analysis of Cyclone Madi at 1pm suggests that it has drifted North and intensified.
Now pressure around 975mb.
1:30pm, Latest visible shot of Cyclone Madi ... shows deep convective activity over N,N-W quadrant ... http://ow.ly/i/3XTm3 
1pm, Cyclone Madi position is 14.42 N , 85.28 E.

Almost ALL models except COAMPS predict a S-W re-curve in next 24 to 36hrs... http://ow.ly/i/3XToA 

Madi - intensified with less movement to North

10am, ADT analysis show that Cyclone Madi has intensified to a great extent.
Now pressure around 977mb.
Winds upto 142 kmph.
Latest poistion is 13.57N , 84.35E... Madi has not drifted N-N-E during past 12hrs... but has intensified ... http://ow.ly/i/3XQ1K 

Madi - visible shot at 10:30am reveals that the center is almost parallel to #Chennai ... http://ow.ly/i/3XQ4u 

Latest models and JTWC expects that mid level ridge will make Very severe Cyclone Madi to stop, weaken and then re-curve to S-W after 36hrs.
GFS, expects Cyclone Madi to weaken while taking S-W movement and hit central Tamilnadu coast as Depression .. http://ow.ly/i/3XQaE 
During next 24hrs, almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu and #Chennai.
Except for S, S tip Tamilnadu.

Sunday, December 08, 2013

Madi - 10:30pm, Showing signs of weakening

MADI - Analysis at 10:30pm suggests pressure is still around 989mb and ADT observes a "Weakening trend during past 4hrs".
10:30pm, here's the latest position (13.66N , 84.86E) plot of Cyclone Madi ... http://ow.ly/i/3XCs7 
Madi is expected to continue it's Northward drift and maintain its intensity during next 15hrs, till it reaches 14th parallel.
GFS model still expects a S-W re-curve after reaching 14N on Tuesday.
And hit central Tamilnadu coast as Depression http://ow.ly/i/3XCH3 

The upper level ridge position

The VSCS "MADI" is located just east-SE of Kalpakkam

As of now the STH ridge has no significant role on the movement of "MADI"

However the upper level winds show a steering faction towards NE

Further SST is relatively warmer near TN coast.  This may lead to newer formation of vortex in Coramandal coast area.

Once the core is detached, development of new vortex near TN Coramandal coast is possible

Madi has moved North in a fast pace, may weaken over sea in next 48hrs

2:30pm, ADT analysis, Madi has moved rapidly in North direction and intensified during past 6hrs.
Position 13.39N , 84.08E
Pressure 989mb
Cyclone Madi is nearing the latitude where Cyclone Lehar lost its life.
Around 14N the V.Wind shear is high .. http://ow.ly/i/3XuFN 

DRY air from N,N-W India is slowly encircling Cyclone Madi as of 11:30am analysis ... http://ow.ly/i/3XuIh 
DRY air, Wind shear is expected to affect the Cyclone Madi's further intensification... in fact models expect the system to weaken in 36hrs

As of 3pm visible shot, Madi looks in good shape with good convective activity along core of system ... http://ow.ly/i/3XuNi 

Going by model suggestions, 2 options for Madi,
1. Fizzle out around 14N, 85E
2. Weaken, then move S-W towards TN coast on/after Tuesday.
GFS continues to forecast a Northerly movement for 36hrs, then weaken and make a rapid S-W recurve towards central Tamilnadu coast on 11-Dec


Cycone Madi - Moved North, S-W re-curve expected after reaching 13N

10:30am, ADT analysis says pressure is around 990mb with winds upto 110kmph.
But US Navy analysis suggests pressure around 974mb.
During past 12hrs, Cyclone Madi has drifted N-N-E.
7:30am, Microwave imagery shows position is at 11.9N , 84.5E... http://ow.ly/i/3XstL 

11am, Visible shot shows Cyclone MADI is in verge of having a clear cut EYE ... http://ow.ly/i/3XsuW 
Also shows it has crossed 12N

#Chennai - till 8:30am today IWM Polichalur station received 9mm of rainfall.
#Chennai - 11:40am, COLD Windy day again with sun peeping out at times.
Light rain may push in again after 1pm.

GFS predicts that MADI will continue to push North for next 2 days and take a S-W re-curve and approach Tamilnadu coast.
@surencal >> Here's the Forecast track based on latest GFS model... showing S-W re-curve after touching 13N .. http://ow.ly/i/3XsA7 
During last 2 days, GFS has persisted with central Tamilnadu coast landfall for Cyclone Madi after reaching 13th Parallel.