The upper level ridge position

The VSCS "MADI" is located just east-SE of Kalpakkam

As of now the STH ridge has no significant role on the movement of "MADI"

However the upper level winds show a steering faction towards NE

Further SST is relatively warmer near TN coast.  This may lead to newer formation of vortex in Coramandal coast area.

Once the core is detached, development of new vortex near TN Coramandal coast is possible

Madi has moved North in a fast pace, may weaken over sea in next 48hrs

2:30pm, ADT analysis, Madi has moved rapidly in North direction and intensified during past 6hrs.
Position 13.39N , 84.08E
Pressure 989mb
Cyclone Madi is nearing the latitude where Cyclone Lehar lost its life.
Around 14N the V.Wind shear is high .. http://ow.ly/i/3XuFN 

DRY air from N,N-W India is slowly encircling Cyclone Madi as of 11:30am analysis ... http://ow.ly/i/3XuIh 
DRY air, Wind shear is expected to affect the Cyclone Madi's further intensification... in fact models expect the system to weaken in 36hrs

As of 3pm visible shot, Madi looks in good shape with good convective activity along core of system ... http://ow.ly/i/3XuNi 

Going by model suggestions, 2 options for Madi,
1. Fizzle out around 14N, 85E
2. Weaken, then move S-W towards TN coast on/after Tuesday.
GFS continues to forecast a Northerly movement for 36hrs, then weaken and make a rapid S-W recurve towards central Tamilnadu coast on 11-Dec

Cycone Madi - Moved North, S-W re-curve expected after reaching 13N

10:30am, ADT analysis says pressure is around 990mb with winds upto 110kmph.
But US Navy analysis suggests pressure around 974mb.
During past 12hrs, Cyclone Madi has drifted N-N-E.
7:30am, Microwave imagery shows position is at 11.9N , 84.5E... http://ow.ly/i/3XstL 

11am, Visible shot shows Cyclone MADI is in verge of having a clear cut EYE ... http://ow.ly/i/3XsuW 
Also shows it has crossed 12N

#Chennai - till 8:30am today IWM Polichalur station received 9mm of rainfall.
#Chennai - 11:40am, COLD Windy day again with sun peeping out at times.
Light rain may push in again after 1pm.

GFS predicts that MADI will continue to push North for next 2 days and take a S-W re-curve and approach Tamilnadu coast.
@surencal >> Here's the Forecast track based on latest GFS model... showing S-W re-curve after touching 13N .. http://ow.ly/i/3XsA7 
During last 2 days, GFS has persisted with central Tamilnadu coast landfall for Cyclone Madi after reaching 13th Parallel.

Posted Saturday Night

BB-21 is now "Madi" and a Severe Cyclone,....is located at 11N and 84.3E.
Studying the sub tropical ridge, we see the Southern Limit of the ridge slightly South of 10N, and of course the Northern Limit is in the North Bay. We see a sort of "absolute no upper wind direction and a sort of stagnancy " in the Western core section of the ridge.
Another HPA and ridge is located over the Indian mainland, though at a lower altitude. 
The system is located in the stagnant area of the sub tropical ridge. That is the reason why Madi is almost quasi stationary, and expected to remain with very negligible tracking next 18-24 hrs. 
Once it breaks free from the region, it will have a  steering guide, and will enter the Western edge of the sub tropical ridge and move NNE. Also the lower level ridge over the mainland can move East and push the system towards skirting the East Coast.

Some models forecast a Southerly track. It can go the SW way only if it gets "entangled" in the Southern periphery edge of the Sub Tropical ridge, and get pulled SW with the upper winds.

The HPA mentioned above is the High Pressure which was anticipated to cover the Northern and Central Indian regions from 2nd week of December.
Few places in the NCR have gone below the 24c mark (maximum temp)...we can expect a gradual fall in day and night temperatures. 
Rajastan, Gujarat and Maharashtra can expect a fall in night temperatures next few nights.
Places in Kutch may go down by 3/4c from current levels, and lowest may reach around 10c. Surat and Bharuch will have cooler nights around 15c.
Mumbai will see cooler nights, with lows around 18/19c (Scruz) and outer townships seeing a fall to 16c next few nights.
Next 2/3 nights, Pune and Nasik will be cooler around 8/9c.

Kolkat gets partly cloudy soon, so remains in the current 27- 16c range till Wednesday. After Wednesday we can expect a drop in night temperatures.

Chennai again gets avoided by another system !  Very little rains accumulating to 20 mms next 2 days.

But,the easterly wave was disrupted by Madi, and is all set to regain strength again from Wednesday off TN coast.

 From www.vagaries.in

8:30pm, Satellite IR shows that Cyclone Madi has drifted N-E (11N , 84.5E).. slowly moving away from Tamilnadu coast. http://ow.ly/i/3XeoE

RT @saisowsen:  #pallikaranai #Chennai at 7:15pm got good rain. Feel really chill. Good time for some hot bajji and samosa :-) 

Cyclone Madi - No movement observed during past 12hrs, #Chennai drizzle

5:30pm, Cyclone MADI has slightly intensified.
Pressure around 991mb.
Winds gusting to 105kmph.
Almost NO movement during past 12hrs.
US Navy plots Cyclone Madi at around 11N , 84.5E and with pressure at 978mb.

4:45pm, Satellite visible shot shows the massiveness, full fledged circulation and the deep convective activity... http://ow.ly/i/3Xbnf 

During past 3 hrs, N Tamilnadu coast especially #Chennai is getting drizzles with winds due to outer band of Cyclone Madi.
More expected
#Chennai - 6:34pm, Polichalur zone records 3.9mm, windy and temperature is at 22.8 C

Chennai, Polichalur zone,  3:37pm, non stop drizzle with winds for past 1.5hr

06B is now Cyclone MADI

12pm, Well established and Ominous looking Cyclone "Madi" ... http://ow.ly/i/3X796 
Pressure around 991mb
Very less drift observed during past 6hrs.

Latest HWRF model predicts a Northerly movement till 12N and then a dramatic S-W re-curve towards S-E Tamilnadu coast http://ow.ly/i/3X7au 

12:20pm, light & moderate rain seen very near to #Chennai coast and may push into city after 1 pm.

06B - intensifies and drifts North.

At 9am, "06B" has intensified further and drifted North.
Present pressure is around 992mb.
Winds reaching to 105 kmph.

Position as of 7:40am microwave imagery is 10.4N , 83.8E ... http://ow.ly/i/3X5ql 

But 9:30am visible reveals that 06B is well organized and may have drifted N-N-E ... http://ow.ly/i/3X5sH 

06B, Most models suggest a Severe Cyclone in next 48hrs and slowly move in N-N-E direction upto 13th parallel, and weaken after that.
Less or almost NO rain expected for Tamilnadu coast during next 12hrs... except for a T shower over S tip and South W-ghats of Tamilnadu