3:30pm, Fresh T.showers seen over S,central Odisha, N-E Andhra, N-central,N-W,S.Tamilnadu, N.Kerala, S-W Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/22m9c 

Today, a weak low level circulation seen over N.Uttarpradesh and another over N.Bihar and N.Bengal ... http://ow.ly/i/22lUj 


And the trough extending south from Bihar can be seen upto S,S-W Karnataka ... ow.ly/i/22lUj

Today, S.Bay has popped a East to West elongated circulation at lower levels ... 

During next 3 days, the North South trough from Bihar to S,S-W Karnataka is expected to persist ... http://ow.ly/i/22m4P 

@adorable_riti >> #Kolkata - at 1:20pm, it was around 36 C (feels like 46.3 C), with humidity around 57% , mild breeze from S-S-W.

" agni natchathiram " - 4-May-2013

While the public gear up to face ‘agni natchathiram’ that commences on Satur­day, the Indian Meteor­ological Department (IMD) website has some happy as well as disturbing news.

The IMD portal says there are possibilities of summer convective rains hitting the southern parts of the state, which could gradually move up northwards and bring relief from scorching sun. But there are also unpleasant signs, as formation of low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal is expected within a few days.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting which is a research-based organisation under Ministry of Earth Sciences has foreseen a cyclone to cross somewhere between northern TN and southern Andhra Pradesh on May 13. The conclusion drawn based on numerical weather models show that a system could form east of Sri Lanka and reach TN or AP coast in another 10 days.

Dr Y.E.A. Raj, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Met Centre (RMC), said that the models are indicating a chance for low pressure in the Bay of Bengal. “We are yet to authenticate the possibility of a depression moving towards TN,” he added.

Eight systems of depression or cyclonic storm were formed in the Bay of Bengal in the last 12 years in the month of May. Astro-Meteorologist S. Ramach­andran has predicted the possibility of cyclone hitting north TN and south AP between May 14 and May 18 due to planetary positions.

Taken from http://www.deccanchronicle.com

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Gear up for Agni’s wrath ... http://ow.ly/kHxKY 

Buttermilk for parched throats in Kilpauk, #Chennai ... http://ow.ly/kHxIT 

On 3-May, highest maximum temperature of 44.7°C was recorded at Rentachintala (Andhra Pradesh)

#Chennai - Yesterday, max temperature was 38.1. Today at 12:40pm it was around 37 C (feels like 44.6 C). Mild breeze from S-S-E !

#HOT Tamilnadu on 3-May, Dharmapuri = 40.1 C, Karur = 40.5 C, Madurai = 39.4 C, Thiruchirapalli = 41.3 C, Vellore = 41.7 C, Salem = 39.2 C

#HOT at 1pm, Nagpur = 45 C, Varanasi = 42 C, Patna = 41 C, #Delhi touches 40 C, Amristar, Jaipur = 39 C, Ahmedabad = 37 C, #Mumbai = 31 C

BB-1 Update ( Saturday12 noon IST)

As on Saturday Morning (IST), NRL has announved the formation of a Low Level Circulation, an UAC and  prelude to a Low at 3N and 84E. This is the iitial formation stage of our BB-1, announced in vagaries yesterday (Friday).

After reading and deciphering almost 8 International models, we see 3 different tracks shown by them as possible route of the system.

Some models show:
1. The sytem ,as a cyclone, hitting the TN coast, and tracking NE ito the Interiors and finally dissipating over Vidharbh.
2. Some show the system heading straight North towards the Orissa coast, and striking there.
3. Some decipher the track as hitting the Southern India coast and re-emerging in the Arabian Sea, and moving up to 15N....

If interested, see vagaries' views.

A low pressure, BB-1,  develops in the Southern Bay, SE off Sri Lanka around the 6th of May. Strengthened by various factors, the system will deepen into a depression by the 8th and a deep depression by the 9th/10th.
Due to "high" resistance initially,BB-1 will not move beyond the 10N line till the 10th, and may just come upto East off Sri Lanka.  
Sri Lanka, east coast in particular, gets very heavy rains from the 7th of May...
 
Very soon, thereafter, indications are there of a rapid North wards movement due to favourable conditions, and possibly deepen more on its track.
 
Vagaries will monitor the strength of BB-1, now a Deep Depression and its track, as it moves past Chennai after the 11th of May.

Vagaries will announce if necessary the "Cyclone alert" once the strength and track of BB-1 is defined.
At the same date, another strong system would have formed S/SW off BB-1, but below the Equator at 8S. Its going to complicate matters for the SWM...there will be hardly any clouding for the Andaman Seas..?? But our Andaman date could remain intact..??

See more on vagaries.

Today as well, the trough from S.Bihar is seen upto S.Tamilnadu, passing thru Chatisgarh, N.Andhra and S.Karnataka... http://ow.ly/i/21US8 

And this trough from S.Bihar to S.Tamilnadu is expected to persist for another 2 days ... http://ow.ly/i/21V41 

S,S-W Bay is expected to pop a circulation on 4/5-May ... http://ow.ly/i/21V87 

Weak circulation over North N-E states persists ... http://ow.ly/i/21VHr 

6pm, T.showers seen over N-W,S Tamilnadu, S,S-central Karnataka, central Andhra, Coastal,N-E Odisha, North N-E states http://ow.ly/i/21SLd 

#HOT at 1:40pm, Nagpur airport is reporting 46 C, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Varanasi = 41 C, Patna = 40 C, Jaipur = 38 C, Amristar, Delhi = 37 C

At 1:10pm, Trivandrum airport has reported some Rain ... with temperature around 31 C.

#Chennai - 1:40pm, temperature = 36 C and feels like 44.7 C. Humidity around 53 % and a mild Sea breeze has set in from S-E.

Yesterday, highest maximum  temperature of   45.6°C  has been recorded at  Nagpur (Maharashtra)

1:30pm, Heavy rain seen over Southern N-E states and mild rain seen over S.Tamilnadu and S. Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/21NrE