Friday, May 03, 2013

A low pressure, BB-1,  develops in the Southern Bay, SE off Sri Lanka around the 6th of May. Strengthened by various factors, the system will deepen into a depression by the 8th and a deep depression by the 9th/10th.
Due to "high" resistance initially,BB-1 will not move beyond the 10N line till the 10th, and may just come upto East off Sri Lanka.  

Sri Lanka, east coast in particular, gets very heavy rains from the 7th of May...
 

Very soon, thereafter, indications are there of a rapid North wards movement due to favourable conditions, and possibly deepen more on its track.
 

Vagaries will monitor the strength of BB-1, now a Deep Depression and its track, as it moves past Chennai after the 11th of May.

Vagaries will announce if necessary the "Cyclone alert" once the strength and track of BB-1 is defined.
At the same date, another strong system would have formed S/SW off BB-1, but below the Equator at 8S. Its going to complicate matters for the SWM...there will be hardly any clouding for the Andaman Seas..?? But our Andaman date could remain intact..??


See more on vagaries.

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