chennai - more intermittent sharp showers forecast all thru the day, for Sunday and Monday as well !

chennai - having a break now 9:42am after sharp showers lashed the city from early hours.

"98B" - is now a Cyclone "05A" over S-E Arabian sea

Position :: 8.2 N and 76 E
Wind :: up to 60 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
---------------------------------

260300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
6 HOURS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVE FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 252127Z 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND VALIDATED BY A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 05B IS 
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE, WITH 
EXCELLENT RADIAL DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES 
ARE HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS).  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE 
RECURVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE LATER TAUS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. THIS FORECAST 
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, 
NAVMARFCSTCEN 250751Z NOV 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTIO21 PGTW 250800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 
11 FEET. 

JTWC projected path 
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Latest satellite IR shot
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Meanwhile North East monsoon will be Very active along entire Tamilnadu coast. Heavy rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu coast for another 2 days.

"98B" is now a Cyclone over S-E corner Arabian sea, just west of Trivandrum .. now it's named as "05A". It'll continue to move N-W

RT @arivukkarasu: @weatherofindia Its 4.04 AM and raining in Coimbatore !

WARNING :: "98B" is intensifying fast.. Heavy rain and wind forecast along S. tip Tamilnadu and along S. kerala coast from Now till Sunday

8:30pm, "98B" is taking good shape and intensifying fast. Heavy rain battering C,N. coastal tamilnadu and more to come. http://ow.ly/i/m53T

"98B" - Having signs of a Cyclone ! and moving N-W ... http://ow.ly/7EX1f

"98B" - Having signs of a Cyclone ! and moving N-W

Now its a "well marked low"
Position :: 4.9 N and 78.3 E
Pressure :: 1001 mb
Wind :: 30 to 60 Km/Hr

JTWC warning
------------------------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.1N 79.3E TO 10.4N 72.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
78.3E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 
79.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 78.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP PERIPHERAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
CONVERGING NORTHERLIES INTO WESTERLIES. A 250431Z ASCAT IMAGE 
INDICATES 25 KNOT EASTERLIES POLEWARD OF 25-30 KNOT WESTERLIES NEAR 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250253Z 37 GHZ SSMIS 
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE WITH A LARGE, SOMEWHAT LINEAR, CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
THE LLCC IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK (05-10 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC, 
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW, AND ACTIVE PHASE OF 
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IN THE REGION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.

IMD warning
----------------------------------

Latest satellite IR shot, 
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JTWC projected path
----------------------------------

Model prediction
------------------------------------
By morning of 26-Nov.. the system is expected to enter into S-E corner of Arabian sea just S-W of Trivandrum and by morning of 27-Nov.. it's expected to move N-W further into Arabian sea and intensify !

Heavy rain to continue all along Tamilnadu coast till evening of 27-Nov-2011.

RT @ravi_2kpp: An hour back black clouds moving towards north near OMR sholinganalur chennai @weatherofindia http://ping.fm/Bnenq