Saturday, November 26, 2011

"98B" - is now a Cyclone "05A" over S-E Arabian sea

Position :: 8.2 N and 76 E
Wind :: up to 60 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
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260300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
6 HOURS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVE FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 252127Z 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND VALIDATED BY A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 05B IS 
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE, WITH 
EXCELLENT RADIAL DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES 
ARE HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS).  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE 
RECURVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE LATER TAUS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. THIS FORECAST 
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, 
NAVMARFCSTCEN 250751Z NOV 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTIO21 PGTW 250800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 
11 FEET. 

JTWC projected path 
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Latest satellite IR shot
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Meanwhile North East monsoon will be Very active along entire Tamilnadu coast. Heavy rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu coast for another 2 days.

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