Update on "Laila":
Latest position at 13.3N  83.3E. With pressure dropped to 985mb and winds at 50 knts. 

Possible area of striking coast near Kakinada, on 19th. evening, and then tracking along the East coast. As expected, it will turn to North-Northeast on hitting landmass. 
Will strike the coast as Cat1 TC, and may maintain this intensity for at least 24/36 hrs. due tto its proximity to the sea.Heavy supportive clouding seen in interior Karnataka.


Rainfall upto 250 mms initially expected along A.P.coast, and 50-70 mms in interior A.P. and North T.N. coast.and winds will reach 70 knts aalong the shores.

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 8 .. (Chennai out of "Laila" 's path)

JTWC projected path:
----------------------------

181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TIGHTENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
181050Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T3.0 FROM KNES, AND
SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 36. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. GFS AND
WBAR ARE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KAKINADA,
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF INDIA, ALTHOUGH
MAINTAINING TC INTENSITY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WEAKEN INTO A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT CROSSES INTO BANGLADESH BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z

Latest Satellite shot
----------------------------
Massive showers can be seen over Central Tamilnadu , Central Tamilnadu coast, N-W Tamilnadu and over Central Karnataka

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 7

The core is loosing its strength a bit and this will re-generate in another 6 hrs time

IMD warning:
-----------------------------

The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards  and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 18^thMay 2010 over southwest and adjoining southeast  & westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.0⁰N and long. 84.0⁰E, about 400 km east of Chennai, 550 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

            The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam by early hours of 20^th May 2010.

Under the influence of this system, north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls  (25 cms or more) and isolated extremely heavy falls during next 48 hours.  Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18^th night. It may increase to 115-125 kmph at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmphlikely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.

           

            Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

            The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.

           

            Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 18^th May 2010.

Satellite shot at 6 pm IST
-----------------------------------------

RT @ndotnanda: @chandrutech heard that cyclone is moving towards chennai. Next few days you will not enjoy the weather. for sure!

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 6 ... (May make landfall over Ongle and Visakhapatinam) ... http://ow.ly/1MtIR

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 6

IMD warning:
--------------------------

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining southeast and westcentral Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning (Orange message).

            The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards  and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 18^th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining southeast  & eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.5⁰N and 84.5⁰E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai, 600 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

            The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongle and Visakhapatinam by early hours of 20^th May 2010.

Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls from today, the 18^th May 2010 evening/night. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18^th night. It may increase subsequently as the system moves closer to coast. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast from today night.

           

            Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

            The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.

           

            Next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 18^th May 2010.

Latest satellite shot
----------------------------

RT @banglanews_eng: Tropical cyclone could hit India and Bangladesh... http://tinyurl.com/35r738j

Chennai - Mild drizzle has started and cloud cover is very heavy. We have LOW cloud movement from W-N-W

4:20pm, Very latest IR shot of Cyclone "Laila" overlaid with RADAR and tracking image as well .. http://ow.ly/i/1CoU

Cyclone Laila May Stall Monsoon’s Progress in India ... http://ow.ly/1Msau