Friday, March 12, 2010
Gradual rise in max temp. is being forecast over parts of north-west, central & east India during the next three days.. http://bit.ly/9RfK7s
Tropical Cyclone Hubert
Tropical Cyclone Hubert hovered over the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Madagascar on March 10, 2010. In a bulletin released the same day, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Hubert was located roughly 160 nautical miles (300 kilometers) southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 45 knots (85 kilometers per hour). The JTWC also reported, however, that the storm had begun to weaken and would continue to dissipate as it moved over land.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image of Hubert on March 10, 2010. The storm lacks a distinct eye but nevertheless spans hundreds of kilometers, from the western shores of Madagascar past the island of Réunion.
Mercury seen up in next 3 days in eastern, central parts
A gradual rise in maximum temperatures is being forecast over parts of north-west, central and east India during the next three days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said on Thursday.
The heating comes on the heels of a western disturbance leaving the region, taking away with it associated clouding and moisture.
The clear skies would allow the sun to beat the surface straight and hard.
The country's hottest place on Thursday was far removed from north-west India, in Palakkad in Kerala that recorded a sizzling 42 deg Celsius.
IMD does not have a monitoring station in Palakkad; the reading was recorded by the Integrated Rural Technology Centre (IRTC), a well-known NGO located in the rocky outback of Mundoor.
Palakkad city itself is learnt to have recorded a comparatively cooler 36 deg Celsius during the day.
Palakkad is vulnerable to heating extremes during this time of the year thanks to a barrage of hot easterlies from the dry plains across the border in Tamil Nadu, making their way through the Palakkad Gap.
Situated on the western side of the Gap, the Palakkad plains connect Kerala to the plains of Tamil Nadu and the Deccan.
This geographical location results in an environmental realm that is different from the rest of Kerala.
High-pressure area
The current phase of accelerated heating over the peninsula, including parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, is being overseen by a stubborn high-pressure region extending from as far east as the west Pacific.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting maintained that the system may start withdrawing to the east from the weekend. This would cause the heating to migrate gradually to the west of the peninsula at the instance of a building region of high pressure over the West Asian deserts and advancing towards north-west India.
Meanwhile on Thursday, maximum temperatures over north-west India were 4 to 7 deg Celsius above normal in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand.
A fresh western disturbance is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir on Friday and Saturday.
No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over north-west, central and east India during the next two days.
The incoming system should bring in moisture and cloudiness and help bring down the maximum temperatures later.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir on Friday and Saturday.
A gradual strengthening of the north-westerly to westerly winds too has been indicated over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next four days. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over parts of the Northeastern States during the next three days.
Satellite imagery on Thursday revealed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) over parts of the western Himalayan region, central and east India and the Andaman Sea.
Towards the immediate south and southeast, a confluence of winds held overnight on Thursday over Vidarbha and adjoining Telangana. This is expected to cause isolated light rain or thundershowers over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and parts of south Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next three days. The outlook until Tuesday next suggest isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers over the Northeastern States. Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and extreme south peninsular India, the IMD said.
The heating comes on the heels of a western disturbance leaving the region, taking away with it associated clouding and moisture.
The clear skies would allow the sun to beat the surface straight and hard.
The country's hottest place on Thursday was far removed from north-west India, in Palakkad in Kerala that recorded a sizzling 42 deg Celsius.
IMD does not have a monitoring station in Palakkad; the reading was recorded by the Integrated Rural Technology Centre (IRTC), a well-known NGO located in the rocky outback of Mundoor.
Palakkad city itself is learnt to have recorded a comparatively cooler 36 deg Celsius during the day.
Palakkad is vulnerable to heating extremes during this time of the year thanks to a barrage of hot easterlies from the dry plains across the border in Tamil Nadu, making their way through the Palakkad Gap.
Situated on the western side of the Gap, the Palakkad plains connect Kerala to the plains of Tamil Nadu and the Deccan.
This geographical location results in an environmental realm that is different from the rest of Kerala.
High-pressure area
The current phase of accelerated heating over the peninsula, including parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, is being overseen by a stubborn high-pressure region extending from as far east as the west Pacific.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting maintained that the system may start withdrawing to the east from the weekend. This would cause the heating to migrate gradually to the west of the peninsula at the instance of a building region of high pressure over the West Asian deserts and advancing towards north-west India.
Meanwhile on Thursday, maximum temperatures over north-west India were 4 to 7 deg Celsius above normal in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand.
A fresh western disturbance is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir on Friday and Saturday.
No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over north-west, central and east India during the next two days.
The incoming system should bring in moisture and cloudiness and help bring down the maximum temperatures later.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir on Friday and Saturday.
A gradual strengthening of the north-westerly to westerly winds too has been indicated over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next four days. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over parts of the Northeastern States during the next three days.
Satellite imagery on Thursday revealed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) over parts of the western Himalayan region, central and east India and the Andaman Sea.
Towards the immediate south and southeast, a confluence of winds held overnight on Thursday over Vidarbha and adjoining Telangana. This is expected to cause isolated light rain or thundershowers over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and parts of south Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next three days. The outlook until Tuesday next suggest isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers over the Northeastern States. Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and extreme south peninsular India, the IMD said.
Mercury crosses 41 degrees C-mark in A.P.
Sustained heating over east and east-central India has seen mercury level at isolated places in interior Andhra Pradesh breach the 40 degree Celsius-mark.
In fact, Anantapur, at 41.4 degree Celsius, was the hottest place in the country during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.
LIKELY RESPITE
Model forecasts are of the view that the heating trend would largely hold over the region until the weekend (Saturday). Some respite could be had as the causative high-pressure area with sinking hot air extending right from the Pacific recedes to the Maritime continent (South-East Asia and beyond) early next week.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the net effect would be that the maximum heating trend would slowly shift across the peninsula to the west where it would be anchored by another high-pressure region advancing from West Asia.
In fact, the Global Forecast System of the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre sees this high-pressure region proceeding to invade extreme northwest and north India by March 17.
Crucially enough, this is shown to happen after a cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area gets lobbed into northwest India by westerlies, blowing around the advancing head of the high-pressure system.
Updated forecasts from the ECMWF see the ‘low' being pushed to east India by the advancing high-pressure region from West Asia. Over the past few days, it has been suggesting that the system might land up more to the west over central India.
WIND CONFLUENCE
Meanwhile, an IMD update on Wednesday said that confluence of winds from opposite directions would take place over north Maharashtra and adjoining Telangana during the next two days.
This is expected to cause isolated light rain or thundershowers over Maharashtra and parts of Madhya Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during this period.
The prevailing feeble western disturbance over north Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood is moving away from north India. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours. A gradual strengthening of winds is likely over the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective clouds capable of producing snow/rains over parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) were seen over parts of western Himalayan region, Punjab, peninsular India and north Andaman Sea.
During the past 24 hours, both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen by about 2 degree Celsius over many parts of northwest and central India. They were above normal by 4 – 7 degree Celsius also over western Himalaya region, thanks to the presence of moisture and clouding associated with the incoming western disturbance.
Isolated rain or snow is likely to occur over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours, the IMD said. Minimum and maximum temperatures over northwest, central and east India are expected to rise slightly during the next two days.
Outlook until Monday next spoke about the possibility of isolated rain or thundershowers over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and extreme south peninsular India. By this time, the prevailing high-pressure over the region would have receded to the east, according to the model forecasts.
In fact, Anantapur, at 41.4 degree Celsius, was the hottest place in the country during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.
LIKELY RESPITE
Model forecasts are of the view that the heating trend would largely hold over the region until the weekend (Saturday). Some respite could be had as the causative high-pressure area with sinking hot air extending right from the Pacific recedes to the Maritime continent (South-East Asia and beyond) early next week.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the net effect would be that the maximum heating trend would slowly shift across the peninsula to the west where it would be anchored by another high-pressure region advancing from West Asia.
In fact, the Global Forecast System of the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre sees this high-pressure region proceeding to invade extreme northwest and north India by March 17.
Crucially enough, this is shown to happen after a cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area gets lobbed into northwest India by westerlies, blowing around the advancing head of the high-pressure system.
Updated forecasts from the ECMWF see the ‘low' being pushed to east India by the advancing high-pressure region from West Asia. Over the past few days, it has been suggesting that the system might land up more to the west over central India.
WIND CONFLUENCE
Meanwhile, an IMD update on Wednesday said that confluence of winds from opposite directions would take place over north Maharashtra and adjoining Telangana during the next two days.
This is expected to cause isolated light rain or thundershowers over Maharashtra and parts of Madhya Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during this period.
The prevailing feeble western disturbance over north Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood is moving away from north India. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours. A gradual strengthening of winds is likely over the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective clouds capable of producing snow/rains over parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) were seen over parts of western Himalayan region, Punjab, peninsular India and north Andaman Sea.
During the past 24 hours, both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen by about 2 degree Celsius over many parts of northwest and central India. They were above normal by 4 – 7 degree Celsius also over western Himalaya region, thanks to the presence of moisture and clouding associated with the incoming western disturbance.
Isolated rain or snow is likely to occur over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours, the IMD said. Minimum and maximum temperatures over northwest, central and east India are expected to rise slightly during the next two days.
Outlook until Monday next spoke about the possibility of isolated rain or thundershowers over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and extreme south peninsular India. By this time, the prevailing high-pressure over the region would have receded to the east, according to the model forecasts.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Westerlies seen capping heat until March 20
International weather models are of the view that western disturbances would keep rolling in, one after the other, to extend their calming influence on weather over north-west India until March 20, if not beyond.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, in its outlook on Monday, that a “feeble western disturbance” may check into the region around Friday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) seems to suggest that a weak system might already be impacting the region.
Strong system
This will be followed by a relatively stronger system by Wednesday/Thursday, which would be active for a day or two. Passage of the system to the east would let in strong north-westerly to westerly currents for the next few days.
According to the ECMWF, a much stronger system, an exceptionally strong one at that, might break into the region from March 16. The system is shown spinning up a low-pressure area the very next day, which could go on to become even a depression, over Rajasthan. This could potentially throw up the threats of heavy rains, high wind and hail to the standing wheat crop in the north-west.
On Monday, strong north-westerly to westerly winds were prevailing over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, the IMD update said.
Minimum temperatures were above normal over many parts of Gujarat, east and central India, some parts of peninsular and northeast India and isolated pockets of East Rajasthan.
Maximum temperatures, too, were above normal over many parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and east, north-east and peninsular India.
Cloud imagery
Satellite imagery on Monday showed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) over parts of western Himalayan region and the north-eastern States.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over parts of the north-eastern States during the next three days. A fall in minimum temperatures is expected over parts of northwest and adjoining central and east India.
A fall in maximum temperatures also is expected over parts of north-west and adjoining central and east India during this period.
Rains for south
Forecast until the weekend said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh and extreme south peninsula. Isolated rain or snow would occur over western Himalayan region.
The trough or wind discontinuity from Orissa to south Tamil Nadu through interior Andhra Pradesh persisted on Monday. An outlook from the Chennai Regional Met Centre said that isolated rain or thundershowers may occur over Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu, over the next two days.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, in its outlook on Monday, that a “feeble western disturbance” may check into the region around Friday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) seems to suggest that a weak system might already be impacting the region.
Strong system
This will be followed by a relatively stronger system by Wednesday/Thursday, which would be active for a day or two. Passage of the system to the east would let in strong north-westerly to westerly currents for the next few days.
According to the ECMWF, a much stronger system, an exceptionally strong one at that, might break into the region from March 16. The system is shown spinning up a low-pressure area the very next day, which could go on to become even a depression, over Rajasthan. This could potentially throw up the threats of heavy rains, high wind and hail to the standing wheat crop in the north-west.
On Monday, strong north-westerly to westerly winds were prevailing over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, the IMD update said.
Minimum temperatures were above normal over many parts of Gujarat, east and central India, some parts of peninsular and northeast India and isolated pockets of East Rajasthan.
Maximum temperatures, too, were above normal over many parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and east, north-east and peninsular India.
Cloud imagery
Satellite imagery on Monday showed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) over parts of western Himalayan region and the north-eastern States.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over parts of the north-eastern States during the next three days. A fall in minimum temperatures is expected over parts of northwest and adjoining central and east India.
A fall in maximum temperatures also is expected over parts of north-west and adjoining central and east India during this period.
Rains for south
Forecast until the weekend said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh and extreme south peninsula. Isolated rain or snow would occur over western Himalayan region.
The trough or wind discontinuity from Orissa to south Tamil Nadu through interior Andhra Pradesh persisted on Monday. An outlook from the Chennai Regional Met Centre said that isolated rain or thundershowers may occur over Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu, over the next two days.
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