JTWC - issues cyclone formation alert for "96B" at 11am IST .. http://is.gd/5jdKT

IMD on "96B" - 1130 hours IST ... http://is.gd/5jdHW

position of "96B" - JTWC - Issued at same time as that of IMD - "9.4N 83.8E".. but IMD says "7N 84.5E" ... Who's tracking What ??

IMD on "96B" - 1130 hours IST

Sub: Cyclone Alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast : Yellow Message


The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 7.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 800 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross Sri Lanka coast between lat. 8.50 N and 9.50 N by evening of tomorrow, the 12th December, 2009. Subsequently, it may emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross Tamil Nadu coast by noon of 13th December 2009.

Based on latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from 12th December 2009 evening onwards.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

JTWC - issues cyclone formation alert for "96B"

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 85.1E TO 9.6N 82.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
84.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
84.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION ABOUT AN AREA OF STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL TURNING. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT YET FULLY CONSOLIDATED AND IT IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS. A 111530Z ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A NORTH-
SOUTH ELONGATION OF THE LLCC WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
POSITIONED TO SUPPORT FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY STRONG RADIAL AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO ASSESSED AS LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
Here's the predicted and traced path of "96B"...

and latest satellite shot of "96B" taken at 12pm IST...

Here's the surface rain rate Shot from TRMM at 22:37 IST, 10-Dec-09 .. http://ping.fm/irkqZ

Chennai - Is heavily cloudy due to the outer band of "96B" .. http://ping.fm/bp8bW ... This cloud mass may contain mild drizzles.

http://ping.fm/NXGVY .. We can see the very outer band of the system is now touching north TN coast and Chennai.

"96B".. getting massive in cloud mass and moving north-west .. here's the latest shot at 9AM IST .. http://ping.fm/2f4Dz

RT @chennaiweather: Rainfall at many places is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from morning tomorrow, the 12-Dec