Friday, December 11, 2009

JTWC - issues cyclone formation alert for "96B"

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 85.1E TO 9.6N 82.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
84.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
84.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION ABOUT AN AREA OF STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL TURNING. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT YET FULLY CONSOLIDATED AND IT IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS. A 111530Z ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A NORTH-
SOUTH ELONGATION OF THE LLCC WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
POSITIONED TO SUPPORT FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY STRONG RADIAL AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO ASSESSED AS LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
Here's the predicted and traced path of "96B"...


and latest satellite shot of "96B" taken at 12pm IST...

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