>Poor India monsoon poses inflation risk - c.bank
[ID:nHKG39508]
>India monsoon 5 pct below normal in Aug 26 week
[ID:nDEL531908]
>India raises farm subsidy to boost winter crops
[ID:nDEL318815]
>India finmin-economy showing some positive signals
[ID:nBMA005680]
>Indian monsoon f'cast to dip again, soybean healthy
[ID:nDEL450338]
>Water in India reservoirs well below normal
[ID:nDEB000875]
>India plans to expand winter crop by 7 mln hectares
[ID:nDEB000912]
>India sees early, higher winter crop sowing-govt
[ID:nDEB000911]
SUGAR
> India's sugar stocks seen at 2.7 mln T on Oct 1
[ID:nDEL302114]
> India sugar stocks dip, enough for 2 months-report
[ID:nDEL394013]
> India imposes limits on sugar stocks for big buyers
[ID:nDEL348482]
> India plans loans, pesticide aid for cane growers
[ID:nDEL535969]
> India mills contract 4 mln T raw sufar-trade
[ID:nDEL507897]
> India gov't, sugar mills seek higher cane sowing
[ID:nDEB000891]
ANALYSIS
>Poor India monsoon may prolong loose money policy
[ID:nSP380050]
>Forget the monsoon, India gold imports set to bounce
[ID:nBOM480118]
>India's food-price surge to prompt more govt action
[ID:nSP376499]
>Poor monsoon stalks India despite economic strides
[ID:nHKG287075]
FACTBOX/SCENARIOS/TIMELINE
>What can India do to manage a bad monsoon?
[ID:nSP92183]
>How monsoon rains impact South Asia crops
[ID:nDEL479514]
>Impact of monsoon on Indian crops
[ID:nDEL401846]
>Possible impact of monsoons on India's crops
[ID:nDEL397486]
>India measures to tide over sugar shortage
[ID:nDEL432592]
TABLES
> India oilseed area drops; cotton, corn up
[ID:nDEL413236]
> India's cumulative weekly monsoon rainfall data
[ID:nDEL544419]
GRAPHICS
> here
> here
> here
TAKE A LOOK
>El Nino churns up threat to commodities
[ID:nSP381099]
>Sugar prices hovering at 28-year high [ID:nN10481485]
>
COLUMN
>Dry spell should bring change to India:Christopher Swann
[ID:nN20517317]
Friday, August 28, 2009
M.P., Rajasthan, Gujarat likely to get more rains
The persisting low-pressure area over Orissa has set off active to vigorous monsoon conditions over Karnataka, Orissa and Telangana overnight on Wednesday.
Model forecasts continue to indicate the westward movement of the `low' over central and adjoining north peninsular India over the next few days and heavy to very heavy rainfall.
CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS
Some international models showed west-northwest movement for the system, which could take it to east Rajasthan. But the wave of heavy rains would also sweep the south Gujarat-Mumbai-Konkan belt progressively.
Consensus predictions from the UK Met Office (UKMO), Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) models showed both westward and west-north westward tracks.
The forecast period (August 23-29) will see the circulation taking advantage of the patch of high sea-surface temperatures available off the Orissa coast to deepen as a `low' and heading west over land.
It may take a west-northwest course from over Vidarbha towards north Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan. An ensemble model prediction from CMC and GFS showed two distinct branches of the system taking off westward and west-north westward.
An India Met Department (IMD) update on Wednesday said that fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and north Andhra Pradesh during the two days.
The rains are likely to scaleup over Madhya Pradesh from Wednesday onwards and over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat from Thursday marked by isolated heavy to very heavy falls.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 25 cm has been forecast over north Konkan and south Gujarat around Friday, an IMD warning said.
MJO EFFECT
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services says that the week ending Aug 31 holds an increased chance for above average rains over central India and the Bay of Bengal.
This would brought to bear by a northward propagating belt of active weather worked up by the periodical and westerly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave of enhanced convection as it passes the equatorial Indian Ocean.
The CPC expects the belt of rains to move further north and interact with a western disturbance passing through the north of the country. This may bring rains to parts of even west Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan.
A western disturbance was located over Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday, an update from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.
The bulk of the MJO-fired activity will then get concentrated to the north of India even as south India and east Bay of Bengal slip under below normal-rain regime as a suppressed MJO convection phase entrenches itself.
But forecasts by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction say that the peninsula will continue to get showers, mostly under an easterly wave activity.
HEAVY RAINS
Satellite pictures on Wednesday showed convective clouds over north and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and parts of southeast Arabian Sea, central and south peninsular India.
South Madhya Pradesh, madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka are expected to witness fairly widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls during the next two days.
The rains may lift from over central and east India from the weekend. But widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy or extremely heavy falls likely over north Konkan and south Gujarat.
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that overnight rainfall was reported from most places over Lakshadweep, Telangana and coastal Karnataka; at many places over Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over coastal Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh; at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rain is likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, the Ghat areas of south interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Model forecasts continue to indicate the westward movement of the `low' over central and adjoining north peninsular India over the next few days and heavy to very heavy rainfall.
CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS
Some international models showed west-northwest movement for the system, which could take it to east Rajasthan. But the wave of heavy rains would also sweep the south Gujarat-Mumbai-Konkan belt progressively.
Consensus predictions from the UK Met Office (UKMO), Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) models showed both westward and west-north westward tracks.
The forecast period (August 23-29) will see the circulation taking advantage of the patch of high sea-surface temperatures available off the Orissa coast to deepen as a `low' and heading west over land.
It may take a west-northwest course from over Vidarbha towards north Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan. An ensemble model prediction from CMC and GFS showed two distinct branches of the system taking off westward and west-north westward.
An India Met Department (IMD) update on Wednesday said that fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and north Andhra Pradesh during the two days.
The rains are likely to scaleup over Madhya Pradesh from Wednesday onwards and over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat from Thursday marked by isolated heavy to very heavy falls.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 25 cm has been forecast over north Konkan and south Gujarat around Friday, an IMD warning said.
MJO EFFECT
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services says that the week ending Aug 31 holds an increased chance for above average rains over central India and the Bay of Bengal.
This would brought to bear by a northward propagating belt of active weather worked up by the periodical and westerly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave of enhanced convection as it passes the equatorial Indian Ocean.
The CPC expects the belt of rains to move further north and interact with a western disturbance passing through the north of the country. This may bring rains to parts of even west Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan.
A western disturbance was located over Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday, an update from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.
The bulk of the MJO-fired activity will then get concentrated to the north of India even as south India and east Bay of Bengal slip under below normal-rain regime as a suppressed MJO convection phase entrenches itself.
But forecasts by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction say that the peninsula will continue to get showers, mostly under an easterly wave activity.
HEAVY RAINS
Satellite pictures on Wednesday showed convective clouds over north and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and parts of southeast Arabian Sea, central and south peninsular India.
South Madhya Pradesh, madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka are expected to witness fairly widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls during the next two days.
The rains may lift from over central and east India from the weekend. But widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy or extremely heavy falls likely over north Konkan and south Gujarat.
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that overnight rainfall was reported from most places over Lakshadweep, Telangana and coastal Karnataka; at many places over Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over coastal Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh; at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rain is likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, the Ghat areas of south interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Category:
IMD Report,
Weather Updates
Rain Deficit Narrows, Aiding India’s Withering Crops
India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 235 million farmers, was above average in most parts of the country, helping crops of rice, sugar cane and soybeans reeling from moisture stress.
Excess rain over central, southern and northeastern regions the past week narrowed the deficit in the week ended Aug. 26 to 5 percent, said S. Kaur, director at the India Meteorological Department. Showers since June 1 were 25 percent below the long- period average, compared with 26 percent a week ago, she said.
“Rainfall was excess in most parts of the country, barring the northwestern region,” said Kaur.
The monsoon season, which brings about three-quarters of the nation’s annual rainfall, may be the driest in seven years, with 252 of the 626 districts declaring drought. India’s summer crop harvest will decline by a fifth, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said today. The country may import food items such as edible oils and lentils to meet any deficit, he said last week.
Falls in the drought-struck northwest states, the nation’s food bowl, were 74 percent less than average in the week ended Aug. 26. The seasonal shortfall widened to 40 percent from 37 percent a week earlier, Kaur said. The region includes Uttar Pradesh, India’s top sugar cane grower, Punjab and Haryana, the top rice and wheat growers.
Inadequate rainfall in July 2008 cut cane yields, lowered production by half and turned India into a net importer for the first time in three years. Production may drop to 14.8 million tons in the year to Sept. 30, from 26.4 million tons.
Sugar reached a 28-year high of 23.33 cents a pound in New York on Aug. 12.
Rice Harvest
India’s monsoon-sown rice output will drop 10 million tons from last year’s record, the government has said. Rice was sown to 27.3 million hectares, compared with 34.14 million hectares a year earlier, the farm ministry said Aug. 25.
Rainfall totaled 514.3 millimeters in the June 1-Aug. 26 period, less than the long-period average of 682 millimeters, the weather bureau’s Kaur said. Showers were 52 millimeters in the week ended Aug. 26, less than the average 54.6 millimeters between 1941 and 1990.
The deficit in the northeast states narrowed to 25 percent from 27 percent on Aug. 19. The shortfall in the central states, including Madhya Pradesh, the biggest soybean producer, narrowed to 20 percent from 22 percent, and a revival in the monsoon over peninsular India narrowed the deficit to 14 percent from 20 percent a week earlier, Kaur said.
Excess rain over central, southern and northeastern regions the past week narrowed the deficit in the week ended Aug. 26 to 5 percent, said S. Kaur, director at the India Meteorological Department. Showers since June 1 were 25 percent below the long- period average, compared with 26 percent a week ago, she said.
“Rainfall was excess in most parts of the country, barring the northwestern region,” said Kaur.
The monsoon season, which brings about three-quarters of the nation’s annual rainfall, may be the driest in seven years, with 252 of the 626 districts declaring drought. India’s summer crop harvest will decline by a fifth, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said today. The country may import food items such as edible oils and lentils to meet any deficit, he said last week.
Falls in the drought-struck northwest states, the nation’s food bowl, were 74 percent less than average in the week ended Aug. 26. The seasonal shortfall widened to 40 percent from 37 percent a week earlier, Kaur said. The region includes Uttar Pradesh, India’s top sugar cane grower, Punjab and Haryana, the top rice and wheat growers.
Inadequate rainfall in July 2008 cut cane yields, lowered production by half and turned India into a net importer for the first time in three years. Production may drop to 14.8 million tons in the year to Sept. 30, from 26.4 million tons.
Sugar reached a 28-year high of 23.33 cents a pound in New York on Aug. 12.
Rice Harvest
India’s monsoon-sown rice output will drop 10 million tons from last year’s record, the government has said. Rice was sown to 27.3 million hectares, compared with 34.14 million hectares a year earlier, the farm ministry said Aug. 25.
Rainfall totaled 514.3 millimeters in the June 1-Aug. 26 period, less than the long-period average of 682 millimeters, the weather bureau’s Kaur said. Showers were 52 millimeters in the week ended Aug. 26, less than the average 54.6 millimeters between 1941 and 1990.
The deficit in the northeast states narrowed to 25 percent from 27 percent on Aug. 19. The shortfall in the central states, including Madhya Pradesh, the biggest soybean producer, narrowed to 20 percent from 22 percent, and a revival in the monsoon over peninsular India narrowed the deficit to 14 percent from 20 percent a week earlier, Kaur said.
Category:
Drought,
News,
South West Monsoon,
Weather Updates
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Tropical storms linger over wet land
Purdue University scientists say they've determined tropical storms originating over oceans retain their strength after landfall when ground moisture is high.
The study of more than 30 years of monsoon data from India, led by Professor Dev Niyogi, showed tropical storms endure when ground moisture is high, but lose power over dry land.
Once a storm comes overland, it was unclear whether it would stall, accelerate or fizzle out, said Niyogi, who also serves as Indiana's state climatologist. We found that whether a storm becomes more intense or causes heavy rains could depend on the land conditions -- something we'd not considered. Thus far we've looked at these storms based mainly on ocean conditions or upper atmosphere.
Niyogi said tropical storms gain their strength from warm ocean water evaporation.
The same phenomenon -- the evaporation from the ocean that sustains the storms -- could be the same phenomenon that sustains that storm over land with moisture in the soil, he said. The storm will have more moisture and energy available over wet soil than dry.
Niyogi's team's findings appear in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Source: United Press International
The study of more than 30 years of monsoon data from India, led by Professor Dev Niyogi, showed tropical storms endure when ground moisture is high, but lose power over dry land.
Once a storm comes overland, it was unclear whether it would stall, accelerate or fizzle out, said Niyogi, who also serves as Indiana's state climatologist. We found that whether a storm becomes more intense or causes heavy rains could depend on the land conditions -- something we'd not considered. Thus far we've looked at these storms based mainly on ocean conditions or upper atmosphere.
Niyogi said tropical storms gain their strength from warm ocean water evaporation.
The same phenomenon -- the evaporation from the ocean that sustains the storms -- could be the same phenomenon that sustains that storm over land with moisture in the soil, he said. The storm will have more moisture and energy available over wet soil than dry.
Niyogi's team's findings appear in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Source: United Press International
Category:
Articles,
Cyclones,
Weather Updates
So Can Anyone Actually Do Anything About Global Warming?
The new issue of Foreign Affairs is hot off the presses. Its cover package includes three articles about global warming that are well worth reading. The focus here is entirely on how to solve the problem. This is a discussion of the politics, not the scientific debate behind it.
First up is Michael Levi, who provides a very sobering look at how hard it will be for this year’s Copenhagen conference (the successor to Kyoto) to produce meaningful results.
Hopes are higher than ever for a breakthrough climate deal. For the past eight years, many argued that developing nations reluctant to commit to a new global climate-change deal — particularly China and India — were simply hiding behind the United States, whose enthusiastic engagement was all that was needed for a breakthrough. Now the long-awaited shift in U.S. policy has arrived.
But George Bush’s America wasn’t the only problem:
The odds of signing a comprehensive treaty in December are vanishingly small. And even reaching such a deal the following year would be an extraordinary challenge…
Many U.S. lawmakers want absolute near-term emissions caps from China and India, but those countries will not sign up for anything of the sort for at least another decade. And before they consider a deal of any kind, Chinese and Indian negotiators are demanding that developed countries commit to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions by over 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, but none of the world’s wealthiest countries will even come close to meeting this goal.
And what if, miraculously, Copenhagen does result in a breakthrough treaty?
Even a blockbuster deal in which every country signed up to binding emissions caps would come nowhere close to guaranteeing success, since the world has few useful options for enforcing commitments to slash emissions short of punitive trade sanctions or similarly unpalatable penalties.
Levi returns often to the challenge of negotiating a deal that can satisfy both the West as well as India and China.
Americans accustomed to thinking about climate diplomacy within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol may assume that the obvious next step is to translate reduction goals into emissions caps, put them in a treaty, and establish a system for global carbon trading. But this would be problematic for three reasons.
First, negotiators from developing countries would insist on much less stringent caps than whatever they thought they could meet…
Second, even if a developing country met its agreed emissions cap, other nations would, in the near term, have little way of verifying this, since most developing countries, including China and India, lack the capacity to robustly monitor their entire economies’ emissions…
And finally, even if the problems of excessively high caps and poor verification could be solved, simple caps would have little value on their own. Canada is a case in point. Ottawa will soon exceed its Kyoto limit by about 30 percent, yet it will face no penalty for doing so because the Kyoto parties never agreed on any meaningful punishments. The United States and others have essentially no way to hold countries such as China and India to emissions caps short of using punitive trade sanctions or other blunt instruments that would make a mess of broader U.S. foreign policy. Obsessing narrowly in Copenhagen over legally binding near-term caps for developing countries is therefore a waste of time.
Seriously? The Canadians? Are there no good countries left in global politics?
Anyhow, Levi argues that the best hope for Copenhagen is a partnership that helps China and other developing countries clean up their act at home:
Shifting China onto a cleaner path will require Beijing to identify specific ways in which it can make deep emissions-intensity cuts. That could include better enforcement of building codes, mandating the use of efficient technology in factories, new subsidies for renewable energy, or a provisional commitment to use carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology on new coal plants by 2020. The United States and other wealthy countries should then offer to help China in whatever ways they usefully can. When it comes to building codes, Washington could help develop Beijing’s monitoring and enforcement capacity…wind power could be expanded by encouraging China to improve its protection of intellectual property, which would attract investment from international firms; and to help slash emissions from coal, the U.S. and Chinese governments could fund private demonstrations of CCS technology and share the resulting intellectual property.
Those are certainly interesting ideas, but one has to wonder about the political plausibility of an approach that rests on China welcoming foreign involvement in its domestic affairs and becoming a leader in the defense of intellectual property rights.
It will certainly be interesting to see whether the US government approaches Copenhagen in the same modest spirit as Mr. Levi.
Source:: themoderatevoice.com
First up is Michael Levi, who provides a very sobering look at how hard it will be for this year’s Copenhagen conference (the successor to Kyoto) to produce meaningful results.
Hopes are higher than ever for a breakthrough climate deal. For the past eight years, many argued that developing nations reluctant to commit to a new global climate-change deal — particularly China and India — were simply hiding behind the United States, whose enthusiastic engagement was all that was needed for a breakthrough. Now the long-awaited shift in U.S. policy has arrived.
But George Bush’s America wasn’t the only problem:
The odds of signing a comprehensive treaty in December are vanishingly small. And even reaching such a deal the following year would be an extraordinary challenge…
Many U.S. lawmakers want absolute near-term emissions caps from China and India, but those countries will not sign up for anything of the sort for at least another decade. And before they consider a deal of any kind, Chinese and Indian negotiators are demanding that developed countries commit to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions by over 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, but none of the world’s wealthiest countries will even come close to meeting this goal.
And what if, miraculously, Copenhagen does result in a breakthrough treaty?
Even a blockbuster deal in which every country signed up to binding emissions caps would come nowhere close to guaranteeing success, since the world has few useful options for enforcing commitments to slash emissions short of punitive trade sanctions or similarly unpalatable penalties.
Levi returns often to the challenge of negotiating a deal that can satisfy both the West as well as India and China.
Americans accustomed to thinking about climate diplomacy within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol may assume that the obvious next step is to translate reduction goals into emissions caps, put them in a treaty, and establish a system for global carbon trading. But this would be problematic for three reasons.
First, negotiators from developing countries would insist on much less stringent caps than whatever they thought they could meet…
Second, even if a developing country met its agreed emissions cap, other nations would, in the near term, have little way of verifying this, since most developing countries, including China and India, lack the capacity to robustly monitor their entire economies’ emissions…
And finally, even if the problems of excessively high caps and poor verification could be solved, simple caps would have little value on their own. Canada is a case in point. Ottawa will soon exceed its Kyoto limit by about 30 percent, yet it will face no penalty for doing so because the Kyoto parties never agreed on any meaningful punishments. The United States and others have essentially no way to hold countries such as China and India to emissions caps short of using punitive trade sanctions or other blunt instruments that would make a mess of broader U.S. foreign policy. Obsessing narrowly in Copenhagen over legally binding near-term caps for developing countries is therefore a waste of time.
Seriously? The Canadians? Are there no good countries left in global politics?
Anyhow, Levi argues that the best hope for Copenhagen is a partnership that helps China and other developing countries clean up their act at home:
Shifting China onto a cleaner path will require Beijing to identify specific ways in which it can make deep emissions-intensity cuts. That could include better enforcement of building codes, mandating the use of efficient technology in factories, new subsidies for renewable energy, or a provisional commitment to use carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology on new coal plants by 2020. The United States and other wealthy countries should then offer to help China in whatever ways they usefully can. When it comes to building codes, Washington could help develop Beijing’s monitoring and enforcement capacity…wind power could be expanded by encouraging China to improve its protection of intellectual property, which would attract investment from international firms; and to help slash emissions from coal, the U.S. and Chinese governments could fund private demonstrations of CCS technology and share the resulting intellectual property.
Those are certainly interesting ideas, but one has to wonder about the political plausibility of an approach that rests on China welcoming foreign involvement in its domestic affairs and becoming a leader in the defense of intellectual property rights.
It will certainly be interesting to see whether the US government approaches Copenhagen in the same modest spirit as Mr. Levi.
Source:: themoderatevoice.com
Category:
Articles,
Global Warming
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