The persisting low-pressure area over Orissa has set off active to vigorous monsoon conditions over Karnataka, Orissa and Telangana overnight on Wednesday.
Model forecasts continue to indicate the westward movement of the `low' over central and adjoining north peninsular India over the next few days and heavy to very heavy rainfall.
CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS
Some international models showed west-northwest movement for the system, which could take it to east Rajasthan. But the wave of heavy rains would also sweep the south Gujarat-Mumbai-Konkan belt progressively.
Consensus predictions from the UK Met Office (UKMO), Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) models showed both westward and west-north westward tracks.
The forecast period (August 23-29) will see the circulation taking advantage of the patch of high sea-surface temperatures available off the Orissa coast to deepen as a `low' and heading west over land.
It may take a west-northwest course from over Vidarbha towards north Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan. An ensemble model prediction from CMC and GFS showed two distinct branches of the system taking off westward and west-north westward.
An India Met Department (IMD) update on Wednesday said that fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and north Andhra Pradesh during the two days.
The rains are likely to scaleup over Madhya Pradesh from Wednesday onwards and over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat from Thursday marked by isolated heavy to very heavy falls.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 25 cm has been forecast over north Konkan and south Gujarat around Friday, an IMD warning said.
MJO EFFECT
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services says that the week ending Aug 31 holds an increased chance for above average rains over central India and the Bay of Bengal.
This would brought to bear by a northward propagating belt of active weather worked up by the periodical and westerly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave of enhanced convection as it passes the equatorial Indian Ocean.
The CPC expects the belt of rains to move further north and interact with a western disturbance passing through the north of the country. This may bring rains to parts of even west Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan.
A western disturbance was located over Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday, an update from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.
The bulk of the MJO-fired activity will then get concentrated to the north of India even as south India and east Bay of Bengal slip under below normal-rain regime as a suppressed MJO convection phase entrenches itself.
But forecasts by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction say that the peninsula will continue to get showers, mostly under an easterly wave activity.
HEAVY RAINS
Satellite pictures on Wednesday showed convective clouds over north and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and parts of southeast Arabian Sea, central and south peninsular India.
South Madhya Pradesh, madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka are expected to witness fairly widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls during the next two days.
The rains may lift from over central and east India from the weekend. But widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy or extremely heavy falls likely over north Konkan and south Gujarat.
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that overnight rainfall was reported from most places over Lakshadweep, Telangana and coastal Karnataka; at many places over Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over coastal Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh; at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rain is likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, the Ghat areas of south interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
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