Wednesday, November 30, 2016

04B intensifying and tracking WNW towards Tamilnadu coast



Latest wind analysis of 04B suggests that above 35kph winds are starting to wrap around center ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/psZOz.gif

Latest ADT analysis of 04B still suggests that its a "Deep depression" and intensifying ... Pressure 1000.3mb, max winds reaching 94 kmph .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pt054.gif

Take a look at this 9am Visible shot of 04B over Bay, inching towards central coast Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pt0e0.jpg


Almost all models predict a central-coast Tamilnadu landfall as Deep Depression / marginal Cyclone on midnight of 1-Dec ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pt7nO.jpg
04B - GFS expects a Deep depression landfall near Karaikal during midnight of 1-Dec into early hrs of 2-Dec ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pt7Es.jpg

This is what HWRF model suggests "during the time of landfall" .. Heavy convective activity expected over S,SW quadrants ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pt8au.jpg

#ALERT
4 regions in Tamilnadu, S Andhra to watch for HEAVY widespread rainfall on 1,2-Dec ... marked in chart ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pt9Ly.jpg 

Rainfall expected to start along central,N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai and S-coast Andhra from Morning of 1-Dec !
From evening of 1-Dec, HEAVY rain #ALERT for Nilgiris zone !
#Chennai - will have rains from morning of 1-Dec and into evening of 2-Dec !
It can be intermittent, 1 or 2 long spell and with gusts !
#ALERT
High winds, heavy widespread rain for zones near coast from Point Calimere to Pondicherry from afternoon,1-Dec to mid-morning,2-Dec.

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