Friday, October 10, 2014

Cyclone "HudHud" now a "Severe Cyclonic Storm




as per JTWC latest warning no.8 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A
091005Z SSMIS PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 72. IT WILL THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET.

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