Friday, November 15, 2013

30W - Depression, drifted S-W again. Rain to start along Tamilnadu coast by evening of 15-Nov

Latest analysis of 30W over S-W Bay shows that the system is still a Depression with pressure around 1000mb.
During past 12hrs it has VERY slowly drift S-W again.
Now it's positioned at 9.8 N , 84.7 E
Wind gusts can reach upto 55 kmph.

Satellite IR at 11pm shows, very heavy convective activity over its W,N-W quadrant, near North East Srilanka.

GFS Models suggest a S-E Tamilnadu coast landfall along N Srilanka tip on noon of 16-Nov.

Showers are expected to start along central, S-E Tamilnadu coast by evening of 15-Nov, and N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai and S Andhra coast will start to get showers from early hrs or early morning of Saturday, 16-Nov.
S-E, central, N Tamilnadu coast is in for widespread Heavy rain on Saturday.. "Super Saturday".
From Friday night till late evening of Saturday, showers can be accompanied by wind gusts reaching to 50 or 60 kmph along the Tamilnadu coast.

The Sea Surface Temperature along central, N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai coast CAN reduce the intensity of rain for these zones... check this  SST effect over cloud mass "
for more about this scenario.

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