Monsoon advance Analysis, as per vagaries..
SWM has feebly moved into the Andaman Region.
SWM will start covering the complete Bay Islands to reach the NE states by the 1st of June.
SWM could be expected over the Maldives by the 20th of May.(Normal date 20th). Over Sri Lanka around the 27th of May.
I would estimate the SWM to advance into Kerala around June 1st/2nd could be the date for Kerala, but remain weakish till the middle of June in coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Initially, as a result of a weak MJO wave, the SWM would be weak in Kerala in June. The further current into Kerala would be "reluctant" to move ahead in a weak MJO, as International forecasters predict the MJO phase in our seas to become weak up to the 10th of June.
Nevertheless, the SWM could progressively advance into Goa/coastal Karnataka from 5th June, and Mumbai by the 9th/10th. of June. .
SWM could delay advance into interior Karnataka and interior Maharashtra by a week from the 10th.
Around 18th of June, I would include entire Mah and South Gujarat as covered by the SWM. I would put the SWM in a weakish phase till the 15th.
.see details in vagaries
SWM has feebly moved into the Andaman Region.
SWM will start covering the complete Bay Islands to reach the NE states by the 1st of June.
SWM could be expected over the Maldives by the 20th of May.(Normal date 20th). Over Sri Lanka around the 27th of May.
I would estimate the SWM to advance into Kerala around June 1st/2nd could be the date for Kerala, but remain weakish till the middle of June in coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Initially, as a result of a weak MJO wave, the SWM would be weak in Kerala in June. The further current into Kerala would be "reluctant" to move ahead in a weak MJO, as International forecasters predict the MJO phase in our seas to become weak up to the 10th of June.
Nevertheless, the SWM could progressively advance into Goa/coastal Karnataka from 5th June, and Mumbai by the 9th/10th. of June. .
SWM could delay advance into interior Karnataka and interior Maharashtra by a week from the 10th.
Around 18th of June, I would include entire Mah and South Gujarat as covered by the SWM. I would put the SWM in a weakish phase till the 15th.
.see details in vagaries
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