Wednesday, May 29, 2013

LOW pressure "94B" and "95A"

"94B" - Lies just south of Bangladesh over N.Bay
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Latest analysis of "94B" shows that it has almost become a Depression now.
Pressure is around 998mb according to Thailand met and around 1004mb according to JTWC.
Winds are gusting up to 45 kmph along S.Bengal and Bangladesh coast.
11:30am, Satellite visible shot reveals heavy convective activity near its center and over N-W, S,S-E quadrant of the system.

In next 24hrs, "94B" is expected to push inland into S.Bengal and S-W.Bangladesh coast.
On tomorrow, the circulation is expected to weaken, reach up to Bihar and then vanish.
During next 36 / 48 hrs... Heavy rain is expected for N,N-E.Odisha, S,central.Bengal, S.Bangladesh and over most parts of N-E states.
From tomorrow, heavy rain expected for most of Bihar, Jharkand, N.Bengal and Sikkim.

#Kolkata - Will experience heavy intermittent Rain from today till 31-May.

JTWC warning for "94B"
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 89.8E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING BANDS OF BROKEN CONVECTION 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN 
INTERMITTENT WITH THE LLCC SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. A 280540Z OSCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE 
ELONGATION OBSERVED IN MSI, AND INDICATES WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE 
CENTER WERE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO BANGLADESH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION AND VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

"95A" - Still along central Oman coast
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Latest analysis show, the circulation over "95A" is weak and persists along Central Oman coast.
11:30am IST, Satellite visible shot reveals, good convective activity seen near the central Oman coast.

Latest GFS model predicts that the circulation is expected to persist along Oman coast or just drift E-N-E for next 3 / 4 days... till 3/4-Jun.

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