Cyclone Mahasen - Slowly moved to W-N-W, No weakening seen !

During the past 6 hrs, the cyclone has crawled West or W-N-W.
Present location is 12.1N , 86.3E
Pressure remains the same at 985 mb
Winds gusting up to 93 kmph.

1:30pm, Visible Satellite shot shows Good core and heavy convective activity over center and over N-E bands.

JTWC warning and path projection at 2:30pm IST
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS 
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A 130321Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES DUE TO THE 
TIGHTLY WRAPPED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 01B IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS 
WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN INDIA. TC 01B IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE STEERING 
RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND CONTINUES TO RE-ORIENT. AFTER TAU 36, THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH. WHILE THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS 
EXPECTED AS THE VWS RELAXES. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM THE 
STRONG WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO AID IN THE 
INTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING FOR A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 72. AFTER 
TAU 72, TC 01B WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND LAND 
INTERACTION ALLOWS FOR DISSIPATION OVER LAND AT TAU 120. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS IN AGREEMENT WITH 
THE RECURVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS AND WITH THE 
EXTENT OF THE NORTHEAST TURN.  THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER 
AND EAST OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WITH 
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 20 FEET.