Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Cyclone "Mahasen" - Now near Odisha coast, Moving N-E, Bangladesh "take care"

Now the cyclone is near Odisha coast and showed some signs of weakening. It has tracked N-E during past 8hrs. 
Present position is 16.8N , 87.6E.
Pressure remains the same around 989mb and winds up to 83 kmph

9:30am, Satellite visible shot shows Deep convection seen along Odisha coast.

According to JTWC, Mahasen will make landfall over S.Bangladesh coast on evening of 16-May. And it also predicts a slight intensification before making landfall.

Latest COLA model suggests a landfall around noon / evening of 16-May over South Bangladesh coast.
Bangladesh "Take care"

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDER THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 142339Z 
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE POSITION OF THE LLCC UNDER THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS 
PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, INDICATING DECREASING EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ESTIMATED WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE 142330Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE POLEWARD ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL WESTERLY FLOW 
ADVECTS THE SYSTEM OVERLAND. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS TIGHT LEADING THE JTWC FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE 
TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL 
INCREASE THE SYSTEM TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. 
STORM DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.

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