Cyclone "Mahasen" - Now a named cyclone, winds upto 83 kmph and moving N-W.

Latest analysus show that the system has intensified into a Cyclone from Deep Depression.
Now it is named as "Mahasen".
Present location is 8.0N 89.8E
Pressure has further reduced during the past 6 hrs to 989 mb.
Winds gusting up to 83 kmph.
2:30pm, Satellite visible shot shows Heavy convective activity all along the core and over N-E,E,N-W,S-W Quadrant and over its over periphery.

JTWC warning and path projection at 2:30pm IST
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880NM SOUTH OF 
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF MULTIPLE BANDING FEATURES LEADING INTO A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSCURED BY 
FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 110403Z 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ASSISTING IN THE BUILD 
UP OF DEEP CONVECTION WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY RELAXED 
TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS), OVERALL RESULTING IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF 
BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED SLOW AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD 
AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN INDIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN 
SEA. TC 01B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120 THE 
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TC AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE 
ON THE RECURVE SCENARIO TOWARDS BANGLADESH, BUT HAS STARTED TO SLOW 
AND SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY 
FASTER THAN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR, WHICH IS SLOWER 
AND WEST OF THE OVERALL TIGHT GROUPING IN THE EARLY TAUS. HIGH 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL UNDERSTOOD 
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND TIGHT GROUPING OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS PRIOR 
TO TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE 
SPREAD AND DIFFERING SPEEDS OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14 FEET.

IMD warning at 1:30pm IST

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The cyclonic storm MAHASEN over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards at a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 11th May 2013 near latitude 07.50 N and longitude 90.00 E, about 350 km southwest of Car Nicobar, 970 km eastsoutheast of Trincomalee, 1230 km southeast of Chennai and 1650 km south-southwest of Chittagong. The system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would move initially northwestwards during next 36 hours and recurve thereafter northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

Fishermen of Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48
hrs.

Latest COLA, IMD and NOGAPS model suggest that "Mahasen" will travel N-W for next 1/2 days up to W-central Bay. Then it will move N-N-E and then N-E. 

Models expect a landfall along North Myanmar coast and S-E Bangladesh coast on early hrs of 16-May as a depression not as a Cyclone. 

Monsoon - The South west monsoon will move into S,S-E Bay and South Andaman Islands on tomorrow.