"92B" - Drifted S-E and now showing signs of intensifying !

Latest analysis show that the system has drifted S-E., this movement was expected by COLA and NOGAPS model.
Present location is 3.4 N , 93.3 E
Pressure is around 1007 mb.

11:30pm, Satellite IR show good convective activity over S-W, N,N-W, S-E quadrant of the circulation.

JTWC warning at 11:30pm
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 91.4E, 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THE BROAD AREA OF TURNING IS ALSO IDENTIFIED IN THE 
ANIMATED DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. A RECENT 
SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS A WEAK LLCC WITH CYCLONIC WINDS OF 10 TO 
15 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW (20 TO 25 KNOTS) ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE 
IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 
30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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Latest COLA model suggests that the system will intensify as a depression on Saturday over S-E Bay and expected to move N-N-W into Bay.

Around 13-May, the Western Disturbance system moving from N-W India is expected to act on this system and the depression is expected to move N-E and make landfall along Myanmar coast on 16-May.

Latest NOGAPS model also suggests the similar path but it predicts the landfall over S.Bengal and S-W Bangladesh on 16-May.

This predicted N-E movement of system from central Bay is good for the onset of the South West Monsoon over S,S-E Bay and over S,central Andaman Islands.

As per the latest, the Monsoon will reach South Andaman Islands on evening of 12-May.