International Climatic Models Turn Even More Pessimistic of a “Normal” Indian Monsoon

We are seeing possible early signals of an emerging El Niño. Large swathes of land within the country are already facing drought like conditions. Meanwhile in Peru, scientists are perplexed over the mystery death of over 3,000 dolphins. What causes marine mammals to die en masse? The US climatic agency, NOAA notes a number of possible causes, including infectious disease, parasite infestation, starvation (associated with El Niño events), pollution, injuries and algal blooms that release bio-toxins. The El Niño remains their primary suspect.

Asked whether he was worried about the El Niño playing spoil sport with the Monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General LS Rathore told the media that :

"Yes there are chances of El Nino phenomenon emerging in the Pacific which may not favour rains in the month of August-September. But overall monsoon is likely to be normal. El Niño is just one of the parameters being considered while forecasting".

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