The deep depression over west-central Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a cyclonic storm named ‘Keila’ this morning.
Keila lay centred over west-central Arabian Sea west-northwest of Mangalore; 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 150 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).
The system is likely to move westwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast to the south of Salalah around tomorrow evening.
Meanwhile, as was forecast over the past couple of days, the upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea has fathered a fresh low-pressure area.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that the system is expected to become ‘more marked’ over the next two days.
A follow-up tropical storm may be developing over the Arabian Sea basin, according to global model forecasts.
The rain-driving trough of low-pressure extending from southwest Bay of Bengal to west-central Bay of Bengal has also been put under watch for instigation of a tropical storm in the Bay of Bengal over the next few days.
After two-away going storms in the Arabian Sea, the building Bay of Bengal storm could turn out to be the first one to be of a direct threat to the Indian coast (Tamil Nadu coast), as per early forecasts.
But since these happen to be early forecasts, the developments in the Bay of Bengal would need to be watched for any signs of storm-building, according to independent experts.
Meanwhile, what seems to have transformed a hesitant depression into a named tropical cyclone overnight in the Arabian Sea is the favourable, though threshold-level sea surface temperatures, according to a US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).
The environment was also aided by the presence of the seasonal anticyclone over west Asia and extending into northwest India, which occupied the space after the southwest monsoon exited the region.
The anticyclone provides the ‘window effect’ to the cyclone towards the top helping the system to ‘breathe’ and sustain itself.
But the JTWC saw the westerlies associated with a prevailing western disturbance over north Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir guiding the system along the Yemen and Oman coasts to east-northeast direction.
The London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group saw the system making a landfall over the Yemen coast, which is similar in terms of the outlook held out by the IMD.
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