Thursday, November 03, 2011

Cyclone "Keila" - Final show near Salalah, Oman

Latest satellite IR shot and Track
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JTWC warning
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POSITION NEAR 17.4N 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (KEILA), LOCATED APPROXIMIATELY 55 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS
SHOWN BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON 
THE PGTW FIX AND ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT THE
REMNANT OF 03A COULD EXIT BACK INTO THE ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 48
NEAR 50.0E AND REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
SPREAD AT 20 DEGREES SOUTHWESTWARD WITH WBAR ON THE RIGHT SIDE AND
NOGAPS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION

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