"05A" - still a depression and moved N-W slowly

Position :: 8.7 N and 74.9 E
Pressure :: 

JTWC warning
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261500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
SYSTEM STRUGGLING AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NEW CONVECTION IS CONSISTENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM CORE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES 
THE NEW CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND A 261119Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WELL-
ORGANIZED AND THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LATEST 
AMSUB RADIAL CROSS SECTION ALSO VERIFIES THE PRESENCE OF A WARM MID-
LEVEL ANOMALY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE TC 05A IS 
BRINGING ITS MOISTURE PACKAGE ALONG AND SATURATING THE ENVIRONMENT 
AHEAD OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS WEIGHTED 
TOWARDS A 260410Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT 
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A LIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS 
UNDERNEATH A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS 
INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
DESPITE THE SHEAR, THERE IS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. TC 05A IS BEING DRIVEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A LOW- 
TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA AND IS 
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE STEADILY OVER THE THREE DAYS, UNTIL IT IS 
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT ANTICYCLONE AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS 
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A REGION OF 
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05A WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR 
TO CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS, NEAR TAU 96 AND 20 DEGREES NORTH 
LATITUDE. ONCE TC 05A ROUNDS THE RIDGE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL 
INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG 
TRACK ARE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 31 DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT REGARDING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA WITH 
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH 
LATITUDE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING THAT 
TC 05A WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KNOTS, AND WILL REACH 
PEAK INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. 

IMD warning 1:30pm
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The depression over Comorin area and neighbourhood moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 26^th November 2011 over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadeep area near latitude 8.0⁰N and longitude 75.5.⁰E, about 150 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 300 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadeep Island), 500 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands during next 48 hrs.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during the same period.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during next 48 hours.

Latest Satellite IR shot
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JTWC projected path
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IMD GFS projected path
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