Friday, June 10, 2011

Arabian Sea ‘low' idles, but US Navy stays watchful

The well-marked low pressure area over east-central Arabian Sea persisted even as US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) issued a ‘cyclone formation alert' in the basin.
The JTWC ‘alert' gets upgraded to ‘cyclone warning' if all pieces fall into place for calibrated system intensification. Presently, it was more or less lying anchored in the region with little forward movement.
But India Meteorological Department (IMD) has from overnight on Thursday withdrawn the watch for intensification of the system as a depression.
A few global models still see its intensification as a depression/cyclone and initial movement towards south Gujarat-Mumbai region guided apparently by a westerly trough.
It is shown as surviving the westerly trough and once the westerly influence wanes, would ‘bounce back' off southwest Gujarat coast into the sea and drive away in a west-northwest direction caressing the southern Pakistan coast.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction and the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau share this view while the Roundy-Albany model sticks to a track north-northeast across south Gujarat into northwest India.
The Konkan-coastal Karnataka coast is expected to witness some of the heaviest precipitation during the week and early into next. Mumbai and Gujarat regions could also get battered in the process.
Meanwhile on Thursday, the IMD said that the northern limit of monsoon continued to pass through Dahanu, Nasik, Gulbarga, Rentachintala, Narsapur, Agartala, Shillong and Itanagar.
Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka and central Arabian Sea. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been warned of over Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka until Sunday.
An extended outlook valid until Tuesday said the west coast would continue to witness widespread to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers.
An extended outlook valid until Tuesday said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over central and rest of peninsular India while being isolated over northwest India.
Upper air cyclonic circulations over Gangetic West Bengal (having weakened from status of a ‘low' overnight) and Assam and Meghalaya are setting up some weather over east and northeast India.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of the monsoon over remaining parts of Bay of Bengal, the Northeastern States and some parts of Orissa, West Bengal and Sikkim during the weekend

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