Thursday, June 09, 2011

"98A" - Still lingering over N-E. Arabian sea will intensify in 48 hrs

98A is now a LOW pressure system and lingering over N-E Arabian sea and showing signs of intensifying in another 48 hrs and expected to move in N-N-W direction.

Latest position ::  18.1N , 69.3E
Pressure :: 1000 mb
wind speed :: 55 KmpH

JTWC has issued a Cyclone formation Alert 
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.1N 
69.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF 
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 082028Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE 
IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CURVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD 
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS 
INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE 
SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MEAN SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE (MSLP) AT MUMBAI, INDIA IS 1000 MB, A 2 MB DROP IN THE PAST 
24 HOURS. A NEARBY SHIP REPORT MEASURED 1000 MB MSLP AS WELL. THE 
LLCC IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY, AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28-33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO DECREASING PRESSURES, PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

COLA model suggests a Cyclone on 11-Jun and making landfall over Pakistan on 14-Jun


While the IMD model suggests a landfall over Oman on 14-Jun


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