Sunday, June 12, 2011

"01A" - Is now a Depression and tracking N-W.. S. Gujarat in Danger

From yesterday afternoon, the LOW pressure system has further intensified into a Depression and constantly tracking N-W.
From yesterday 2pm, S. Gujarat coast is getting some showers.. and much more to come for another 24 hrs.
Latest on Depression "01A" ::
Position :: 20.4N , 71E
Pressure :: 996mb
Wind :: 60 KmpH
Visible Satellite shot taken at 9:30 AM IST

JTWC::
-------------
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON  
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING 111920Z TRMM, 112109Z 
AMSU-B, AND 112115Z AMSU-B PASSES, AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN 
112030Z DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM KNES AND CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES. 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST IS SHEARING MUCH OF THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND 
PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM INTENSIFYING. TC 01A IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. 
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12 SHOULD 
RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS 
IN POOR AGREEMENT, LIKELY DUE TO WIDELY VARYING REPRESENTATIONS OF 
THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AMONG THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE CURRENT TRACK 
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT 
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 120000Z IS 8 FEET.
IMD warning
-------------------------------
ARB 01/2011/03 Dated: 12.06.2011
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST
Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-Gujarat coasts.
The depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 12th June 2011, near lat. 20.00 N and long. 71.50 E, about 180 km northwest of Mumbai, 150 km of southeast of Veraval and 700 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It would move in northwesterly direction towards Saurashtra coast.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu and south Gujarat region during next 24 hours. Isolated heavy fall would occur over Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra during next 24 hours.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off Maharashtra รข€“ south Gujarat coasts during next 36 hours.
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts.
The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.

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