Ongoing feverish easterly wave activity is expected to throw up a low-pressure area over South-West Bay of Bengal off South-East Tamil Nadu and adjoining North-East Sri Lankan coast by Sunday.
This will further scale up the heavy to very heavy rainfall over entire Tamil Nadu coast for another week with the rainiest spots shifting between the South-East Tamil Nadu coast and Chennai and its neighbourhood.
International model forecasts are of the view that the ‘low' would drop anchor over the coast for sometime before being driven away north-northeast along the eastern coast all the way up to Orissa and beyond.
This is expected to happen under the influence of opposing winds from successive westerly troughs checking into North-West India from across the border and dipping into peninsular latitudes.
The wet to very wet session over the east coast is expected to last until December 11 from when the rains are expected to relent.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook valid until Wednesday also said that fairly widespread rainfall activity may occur along the east coast.
On account of this, the ongoing fairly widespread rain or thundershowers activity over Kerala and scattered over South Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep may scale down in intensity from Sunday.
MERCURY TREND
On the other hand, the scattered rain or thundershowers over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema is likely to perk up during this period.
No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over North-West India during next two to three days.
However, they may increase by 2 to 3 degree Celsius over East and adjoining Central India from Saturday owing to the cloudiness likely being brought in by the southerly winds from Tamil Nadu region. By the same token, maximum day temperatures could climb down here.
Mainly dry weather is expected to prevail over the plains of North-West and Central India. A feeble western disturbance may affect western Himalayan region.
Fresh easterly wave activity is likely to begin from December 19, which could once again cause rain bands to race in from South-East Bay of Bengal, according to forecast outlook from the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.
In the short term, though, an outlook for the six days ending Tuesday (December 7) from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University suggests ‘unusually heavy rains' for South-West Bay and adjacent land features.
In this manner, the whole of the island nation of Sri Lanka, Coastal Tamil Nadu, especially the southern and southeastern parts as well as the interior, would be brought under a sustained wet cover.
‘Wetter than normal' conditions have been forecast for the entire coast, with Chennai and neighbourhood, Southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Kerala likely turning up as the wet spots.
Meanwhile on Friday, a weather warning India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that heavy rainfall would occur over a few places along coastal Tamil Nadu on Saturday and Sunday. It will be isolated over interior Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
The causative easterly wave with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation over South-West Bay and adjoining South Tamil Nadu continued to affect South Peninsular India during the 24 hours ending on Friday.
Under influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation, a ‘low' may develop over South-West Bay around Sunday as mentioned earlier.
Friday's Insat cloud imagery showed convective clouds over parts of East-Central and South Arabian Sea, Central and South Bay of Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Comorin area.
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