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cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 5th November 2010, near lat. 9.50N and long. 87.00E about 600 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 800 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1000 km southeast of Visakhapatnam. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema from morning of 7th November 2010.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.
Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.
JTWC warning, 8:30pm IST
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051500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 86.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. JAL IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 3.0/3.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY RUNS ALONG 14.0N, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH OF THE TC. JAL WILL APPROACH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT TRANSITS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO-DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE, RELAXING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A MATURE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A DEEP POOL OF WARM WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL WILL ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL COME ASHORE NEAR CHENNAI SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR INDIA. THIS FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET.
JTWC tracking
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Satellite, IR, 7pm IST
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