More rains to push into Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh

The West Coast, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh will join the Southern Peninsula in sharing the spoils of continuing wet conditions, non-seasonal for some, during the rest of November.

Easterly wave action is expected to keep the Tamil Nadu coast busy even as residual circulations from them would cross the peninsula to keep the Arabian Sea also on the boil.

NON-SEASONAL RAIN

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) expects the non-seasonal rains over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and the Konkan Coast could go on during the week ending November 28.

Up to 600 per cent above the weekly normal is expected to fall over these places, according to NCEP.

Coastal and Southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Kerala and parts of the West Coast will continue to receive rains into the first week of December.

Contrastingly, the NCEP outlook sees below normal rainfall for interior Tamil Nadu during this period.

A six-day outlook for the period until Thursday by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society has assessed the possibility of unusually heavy rains over entire Sri Lanka, adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal and Coastal Tamil Nadu.

ARABIAN SEA ‘LOW'

The IRI also sees the core of rain bands sitting smack over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and Sindh in Pakistan being driven by a low-pressure area in East-central Arabian Sea.

The rains would grow in intensity as one proceeds south-to-southwest from West Madhya Pradesh with the heaviest expected to fall over South and Southwest Gujarat.

Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Sunday located the causative low-pressure area lying parked over East-central and adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea on Sunday.

The system may not likely to intensify further, but might move north-northeastwards leading to moisture incursion over Gujarat, Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh and even up to Delhi and South Haryana during the next two to three days.

In fact, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has said that the north-northeast movement (towards Konkan-Gujarat coast) of the system would be masterminded by a concurrent western disturbance from across the country's northwest border and dipping to the south.

It would not be until Tuesday that the system would crawl up to the Saurashtra Coast and drum up the proceedings to a peak, according to the ECMWF.

And, as if on cue, the IMD has kept a lookout for the next easterly wave affecting the South Peninsular Coast India from Tuesday.

This is even as fairly widespread rainfall was reported over South Peninsular India during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning from a preceding wave that hit the Tamil Nadu coast.

It was scattered over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Andaman and Nicobar Islands and isolated over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and North Konkan.

The IMD outlook until Wednesday for various Met sub-divisions assessed that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

It would be fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya on Monday before reducing in intensity thereafter.

Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over Gujarat and South Rajasthan on Monday and scale up thereafter.

Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.