To some extend I too support LA NINA effect. The warmer west Pacific [Asian Region]and to some extend Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in 2010 Indian Summer Monsoon.
[1] The orientation of High pressure in Indian Ocean [Perhaps Mascarene High]and the cross equatorial winds are stronger and lash Indian west coast above 15 Deg Latitude.
[2]Is it due to weak trade winds in association with LA NINA ?
[3] Historical records of the year 1931 is somewhat identical with 2010 SWM pattern.
[4] Accordingly Karnataka may get rainfall in late AUG or early SEP. But NEM may or may NOT fair well.
[5] LA NINA may prevail for longer run say 24 to 36 months or even beyond.
[6]In that case SWM 2011 may not be good for Karnataka.
[Purely this is my presumption based on historical records and hear says from weather skeptics.]
Posted by Kaneyen
