I attended a lecture given by one of the eminent environmental enthusiasts in Tirunelveli. He is of the view that warming in the upper atmosphere especially between 850 to 700 hPa is responsible for relatively lesser rainfall in the Wyanad, interior parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru. The usual monsoon trough or depression are NOT forming at sea level in Bay of Bengal.
Leh the elevation of which is 11500ft [approximately 3.5km]receives usually lesser rainfall. A small portion of moist warmed upper air orographic-ally rose and burst into sudden rain over a small area. The intensity of rainfall is such that it triggers immediately mud slides.
[As happened in Ketty, Nilgiri district in Tamilnadu during NEM 2009] This can not be tied to global warming effects, but it is warming of upper air.
The volcanic eruption in Iceland during this Summer 2010 and the tectonic sub surface ocean floor was warmer due to vent in the floor and made Artic ocean warmer. This leads the ice in the Artic melt. The ocean is the culprit. Not the atmosphere.
posted by Kaneyen
Does this imply Karnataka will miss 2010 monsoon? Will this be next year also? Already Bangalore has 5hours of power cut in a day. Different people say different answers - some say LA-NINA effect, some say inverted parabola (vortex)- north Bay, Orissa, MP, Maharastra,Gujrat, Raj; some say heat wave in Russia.
ReplyDeleteDear sset,
ReplyDeleteTo some extend I too support LA NINA effect. The warmer west Pacific [Asian Region]and to some extend Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in 2010 Indian Summer Monsoon. [1] The orientation of High pressure in Indian Ocean [Perhaps Mascarene High]and the cross equatorial winds are stronger and lash Indian west coast above 15 Deg Latitude.
[2](Is it due to weak trade winds in association with LA NINA ?).
[3] Historical records of the year 1931 is somewhat identical with 2010 SWM pattern.
[4] Accordingly Karnataka may get rainfall in late AUG or early SEP. But NEM may or may NOT fair well. [5] LA NINA may prevail for longer run say 24 to 36 months or even beyond.
[5]In that case SWM 2011 may not be good for Karnataka.
[Purely this is my presumption based on historical records and hear says from weather skeptics.]
Thanks Kaneyen. Even during absence of La-Nina effect, in recent 10years Northeast monsoon was never vigourous or sufficient. Pattern is only decreasing intensity and number of raining days. Fear is in few years it will dissappear for ever. NEM rains are only maximum 10days in period of 4 months. (oct-jan).
ReplyDeleteIt seems low pressure clouds off south arabian sea moving away from Karnataka/kerala coast and heading towards Maharastra/Gujarat. Again repetition of june/july rains for rain excess Maharastra/Gujarat. Bad news for Karnataka/Kerala.
ReplyDeleteSSET,
ReplyDeleteGood News for you, Heavy rains predicted for this week for Karnataka (including interior areas)