The IMD 925 wind map shows that the westerly flows have started into north-west India by replacing the easterlies in connection with a ‘break monsoon' condition, weakening trend in rainfall.
Break monsoon condition occurs when the monsoon trough shifts from its normal position over central India, northwards towards the foot of the Himalayas. During a break monsoon, heavy rain is to be expected along the Himalayan foothills and Northeast India, as the eastern end of the axis moves into that region. "
Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation, a feeble low pressure area is likely to form over northwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal today".- IMD bulletin today. This is also seen in the 925 wind map. As discussed in yesterday's blog, this low would travel along the axis, and merge into it. As it moves, region around Delhi and western U.P. plains can expect heavy rains around this weekend. An extended forecast for this week would be rainfall with heavy falls over the Western Himalayan region. Resultantly,with heavy rains in the catchments of some rivers, we may witness some rivers overflowing into the Bihar plains from Sunday.
Along with this break monsoon, the days have started getting warmer, rather hotter. Yesterday's highs, as seen in this map, shows a 40c (Hissar), a 39c, (Ganganagar), and several 36s and 37s in the north. Several places in the south have also started seeing higher day temperatures, with pockets recording 37c
. As discussed in the "vagaries" on 9th. I would estimate Bangalore to cross 31c. These hot conditions with moisture conditions would facilitate building up of thunder cells and thunder showers in the interiors of Gujarat/Maharashtra/Karnataka. These would be restricted, initially, meaning on Wednesday/Thursday, to interior Gujarat, and then thundershowers would pop up in interior Maharshtra and Karnataka from Saturday.However,thunder cells would not be widespread, and would be in pockets.
Mumbai: With the sun shining, the days have started getting to 32c. Likely to continue with such weather. With a daily average rain of less than 10 mms, till Sunday, one may tend to think the monsoon is over. But a shower to two will be a reminder that the rainy season is not over. Chances of a thunder cell drifting over Mumbai on Sunday from the east. But will not attempt to confirm that !