A weakened monsoon has delivered 26 per cent less rainfall during the week ending Wednesday with the southern peninsula joining East India to post significant deficit.
Marathwada (+73 per cent) and Telangana (+16 per cent) were the two exceptions and counted themselves among the 12 Met subdivisions to post excess or normal rainfall during the period under reference.
J&K in surplus
The Jammu and Kashmir sub-division, which witnessed a killer cloudburst over the Leh region during the week, also ended up with surplus rainfall (+56 per cent). The rest 24 Met sub-divisions, spread along the West Coast, South Peninsula, North-West and East India, recorded deficient of scanty rainfall, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said. Central and East-central India and extreme West India (Gujarat and West Rajasthan), too, stood out for moderate to exceptional gains during the period under reference.
Fresh ‘low'
However, a fresh low-pressure area persisting over Northwest and adjoining West-central Bay of Bengal on Thursday and an upper air cyclonic circulation over North Rajasthan and adjoining Haryana and Punjab are promising to bring a material change to the scenario.
While the ‘low' is forecast to take a west-northwest course to enter the coast, the upper circulation will combine with the resident monsoon trough along the Himalayan foothills to set up rains over disparate regions. Southeast, Central and East-central India, Northwest and parts of East India are expected to make significant gains during the six days ending on Monday, according to the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
Southerly wave
The IRI saw wet weather enveloping Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Southwest Coast (Kerala) and extending into Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during this period. It has forecast wet weather for parts of Northwest India also, including over north Madhya Pradesh; northeastern parts of east Rajasthan; Haryana; Punjab; Delhi; West Uttar Pradesh; Uttarakhand; Himachal Pradesh; and southern flanks of Jammu and Kashmir.Meanwhile, the IMD has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, South Coastal Orissa and North Andhra Pradesh for the next two days.
Widespread rains
In its update on Thursday, it said that the 24 hours ending Thursday afternoon saw widespread rainfall occur over Himachal Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Konkan and Goa. It was fairly widespread over the plains of Northwest India, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Northeastern States.
Satellite pictures revealed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Central, East and northeast India, Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, interior Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Lakshadweep, Central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
Forecast until Sunday said widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the western Himalayas and the
Northeastern States.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Central India and plains of Northwest India, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep.
Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and gangetic West Bengal.
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