Cyclone "03 A" .. Update # 17 ... Invisible, yet power packed. Very near to Pakistan & Gujarat

JTWC warning
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060300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 64.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
052140Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN EXPOSED, BUT WELL-DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARED 200 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE 
CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 25 KNOTS (FT) TO 30 
KNOTS (CI). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE 
051350Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH INDICATED 35-40 KNOT GALES SURROUNDING 
THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE LLCC SATELLITE SIGNATURE. TC 03A HAS 
ACCELERATED EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD 
TOWARD KARACHI. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW LLCC, WINDSAT AND 
WARM CORE (05/12Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PLOT), THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 35-40 KNOT INTENSITY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL 
AFTER TAU 12. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL 
TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET.

JTWC projected path
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IMD warning
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ARB 02/2010/42                                                                                  Dated: 06.06.2010

Time of issue: 0130 hours IST

Sub: Cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ weakened into a deep depression over northwest Arabian Sea.

            The cyclonic storm, “PHET” over northwest Arabian Sea off Makaran coast weakened into a deep depression and moved further eastwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of yesterday, the 5^th June 2010 near lat. 24.5⁰N and long. 62.5⁰E, about 100 km southeast of Jiwani (Pakistan),  450 km west-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 650 km west-northwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat).

           

            The system would weaken gradually and move east-northeastwards and cross Pakistan coast near 66.0ºE by tomorrow, the 06 June 2010 night.

Fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 24 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off north Gujarat coast during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast.

Satellite shot at 6:30am IST
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