Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 16... Invisible now

JTWC warning
-------------------------

050900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION SHEARED 52 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03A IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). TC PHET IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DUE TO THE HIGH VWS, 
TC 03A IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BY TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI. THIS 
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 20 FEET.

IMD warning
-------------------------------
ARB 02/2010/39                                                                                                      Dated: 05.06.2010
Time of issue: 1730 hours IST

Sub: Cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over northwest Arabian Sea

            The cyclonic storm, “PHET” over northwest Arabian Sea off Makaran coast  remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 5th June 2010 near lat. 24.50N and long. 61.00E, about 120 km southwest of Jiwani (Pakistan),  600 km west-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan), 300 km northeast of Sur (Oman) and 800 km west-northwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat).
           
            The system would weaken further and move east-northeastwards and cross Pakistan coast near 64.0ºE by tomorrow forenoon, the 06 June 2010.
Fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 36 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off north Gujarat coast during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast.

JTWC projected path
-------------------------------

Satellite shot at 5:30pm IST
-----------------------------------------