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050300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 60.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 65 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 042157Z AMSR-E 36V GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAKENING LLCC WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW CI (45 KNOTS). TC 03A HAS FINALLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 22 FEET.
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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Phet lost almost 70% of its cloud mass and shape.
It'll re-build on its way East over open sea.
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