Tuesday, November 10, 2009

"04A" - slightly moved North-east !!


"04A" - slightly moved North-east towards land.
JTWC warning::
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 100411Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE MONSOON-LIKE
CIRCULATION WITH STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WEAK BANDING ELSEWHERE. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED
BY A 100048Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED 30- TO 35-KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD STEADY BASED ON THE
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING, DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH
PGTW AND KNES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
BUT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. TC 04A SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS
THIS NORTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 12 FEET.
and here's JTWC predicted path::

And also IMD's latest warning::
The deep depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved further northwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 10th November, 2009 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near Lat. 13.50N and Long. 70.50E, about 470 km west-northwest of Mangalore, 420 km southwest of Goa and 670 km south-southwest of Mumbai. The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a northerly direction for some more time and then north-northeastwards and cross south Gujarat and north Maharashtra coast between Mahuva and Dahanu by early hours of 12th November, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall (≥25 cm) is likely over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharastra during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places is likely over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep area during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls(≥25 cm) is likely to commence over south Gujarat from tomorrow, the 11th November, 2009.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely along and off Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra coasts during next 48 hours and over Lakshadweep area and Kerala coasts during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough over Lakshadweep area and along and off Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra coasts. Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 gusting to 75 kmph likely to commence along and off south Gujarat coast from tomorrow afternoon.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off these coasts.

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