Tropical Cyclone Phyan underwent rapid weakening while moving north-northeast over land on Thursday and was traced as a low-pressure area over southwest Madhya Pradesh.
The Phyan remnant dropped fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over the west coast, madhya Maharashtra and west Madhya Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
LINGERING MOISTURE
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during the two days largely from the lingering moisture left behind by Phyan.
Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers has also been forecast for parts of northwest India during the next two days as the prevailing western disturbance interacts with the Phyan remnant.
Meanwhile, for the week beginning Thursday, the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees the entire peninsula awash with moisture fanned in by easterlies from the Bay as well as that kicked in by Phyan.
This would be the perfect brew for a regime of intermittent thundershowers over the region during the period under reference even as a fresh wave of rainfall is expected to enter southern peninsula over the next two days. This would be drive by an easterly wave, according to the IMD, and international models mostly agree with the outlook. Southeast and coastal Tamil Nadu is likely to be the major beneficiary of these rains.
In fact, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees the possibility of a weak low-pressure area building around November 22 over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Indian Ocean, just to the west of western tip of Indonesian archipelago.
This makes sense given the forecast of an area of enhanced convection over equatorial Indian Ocean moving east to reach this region around this time. This is in line with the movement of a prevailing wet phase of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave.
MJO WAVE
The periodical MJO wave travelling from west to east over the Indian Ocean is known to magnify weather under its footprint. This is manifest in the creation of low-pressure areas or even tropical cyclones resulting in copious precipitation.
However, according to the NCEP, the week beginning November 20 would see the southern peninsula beginning to dry up with only occasional thundershowers to be expected in the region.
This is expected to happen as the wet phase of the MJO moves away further east to yield place for its alter ego, the dry MJO phase. The latter triggers the arrival of a suppressed rain regime, often leading to prolonged dry phase or even droughts.
IMD satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Orissa and Uttarakhand. Low to medium high clouds were seen over parts of northwest, central and peninsular India.
The northeast monsoon has been vigorous over coastal Karnataka during the last 24 hours ending Thursday morning, said an update from the Regional Met Centre, Chennai.
Rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Karnataka; at many places over interior Karnataka and Kerala; and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during this period.
Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, Telangana and Lakshadweep.
Forecast until Saturday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
An IMD outlook said that no significant change in minimum temperatures was expected over plains of northwest and adjoining central India during next two days.
But they may fall subsequently as cooler northwesterlies waft in after the prevailing western disturbance exits the country towards the east.
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